Sunday, December 31, 2017

18 Sports Predictions For 2018

Every year I like to go on the record making a number of random sports predictions. Last year I made 17 predictions and only 3 came true. It was not a good year for my foresight. Hopefully things will improve in 2018.

1) Ken Holland does not sign a new contract with Red Wings

2) Tim Tebow hits MLB home run

3) Colin Kaepernick plays a professional football game

4) Johnny Manziel plays a professional football game Done!

5) New England Patriots win Super Bowl

6) St. Louis Blues win Stanley Cup

7) Sweden wins Olympic men's hockey gold

8) Canada wins at least 10 gold medals at the Olympics.  Done!

9) Yankees win World Series

10) Neither Eugenie Bouchard or Dennis Shapovalov will win a tennis tournament. Done!

11) Carolina Hurricanes relocate to Houston

12) Phoenix Coyotes relocate to Quebec City

13) Andrei Vasiylevsky wins the Vezina Trophy

14) Tiger Woods accused of sexual misconduct

15) Conor McGregor will either lose his next UFC fight, or not fight at all.  Done!

16) Argentina wins World Cup of Soccer

17) The Vegas Golden Knights make the playoffs and the Pittsburgh Penguins miss

18) Scientists discover every competitor in the NFL and UFC has CTE

*bonus* Eugenie Bouchard marries the dude from the Super Bowl bet

*bonus* The winner of the Lou Marsh Award will be a joke Done!

NHL 2017 Week 13 Fantasy Hockey Report

Players to watch, all formats:


1) David Backes, Boston, (38% Yahoo ownership): Whatever his health issues may be, it doesn’t seem to be hurting his play lately. Over his last 7 GP Backes has 11 PTS (including 4 consecutive 2-point games). I’m not sure how sustainable this hot streak will be, but he’s a hot hand you can certainly ride in the short term. He may get you some PIMs too.

2) Mikko Rantanen, Colorado, (55% Yahoo ownership): The kid has scored 11 PTS in his last 10 GP and has become a legit scorer in the NHL. He’s on pace for 73 PTS this season and should probably be owned in most standard leagues.

3) Cam Ward, Carolina, (29% Yahoo ownership): It looks like he’s become the #1 guy in Carolina with Scott Darling struggling. In his last 4 GP, Ward is 4-0 with a 1.25 GAA and .951 SV%. He won’t sustain those numbers for the rest of the season, but he’s worth keeping an eye on if you’re desperate.

4) Ryan Nugent Hopkins, Edmonton, (39% Yahoo ownership): He’s on pace for a career best 63 PTS and has been one of the few bright spots on the Oilers roster, scoring 7 PTS in his last 6 GP. His ownership should be in the 50% - 70% range. He’s the 4th most added player in Yahoo today, so that number is climbing.

5) Thomas Vanek, Vancouver, (18% Yahoo ownership): I would have said that Vanek’s 4-point game on Dec 19 was a fluke, but then he put up a 5-point game on Dec 28. That gives him 10 PTS in his last 5 GP. Obviously that pace is not sustainable in the long-term, but by all means ride the hot streak while he’s playing top line minutes with Brock Boeser.

Going Deep: players owned in 10% of leagues or less:

1) Daniel Sprong, Pittsburgh, (6% Yahoo ownership): The kid has been one of the best scorers in the AHL this season and has been recalled to the Penguins. He’s already up to 6% ownership without having played a game yet, so there’s more than a few people anticipating his recall.

2) Calle Jarnkrok, Nashville, (6% Yahoo ownership): The injury to Forsberg has created an opportunity for Jarnkrok to climb the depth chart. He had been playing at a 40-point pace prior to the promotion and could be standard league relevant so long as Forsberg is out.  He should be owned in all leagues with 14+ teams.

3) Ryan Spooner, Boston, (2% Yahoo ownership): Spooner has had some trouble staying in the line-up this season and only had 3 PTS in 8 GP by Dec 1. Since then however, he’s scored 8 PTS in 9 GP in December. He had fallen off from the 49 PTS he scored at age 23 in 2016, but is back on the ice scoring PTS. Add him to your Watch List.

4) Nikita Zadorov, Colorado, (5% Yahoo ownership): Zadorov has been getting tons of ice time in Colorado this season and has 5 PTS in his last 6 GP. He’s still just 22 years old and could still develop into a quality offensive player. He’s on pace for 26 PTS, which would be his career best to date. He’s somebody worth keeping an eye on.

5) Jesse Puljujarvi, Edmonton, (8% Yahoo ownership): I hope my friend isn’t reading this, after I recommended that he drop Puljujarvi and add Zac Rinaldo a few weeks ago. In my defense, JP had just been a healthy scratch and my friended really needed PIMs and Hits. Jesse has been seeing ice time with Connor McDavid and has 6 PTS in his last 10 GP. He’s not on the standard league radar just yet, but has some interesting upside for deeper formats.


The 1%: Top 3 Players to Add that are 1% Owned or Less

1) Riley Nash, Boston: He’s not the most exciting fantasy option, but he’s got some value in really deep leagues, on pace for a 37-point season with 5 PTS in his last 5 GP. The Bruins have been hot. He’s a guy to watch if you’re in a league deep enough to add 1% players.

2) Kyle Brodziak, St. Louis: At 33 years old he doesn’t have too much value, and hasn’t for a few years now. Sometimes he’ll end up on my roster in our 18-team super league if I need a few extra face-off wins. I wouldn’t get too excited about him scoring 5 PTS in his last 5 GP, but that’s still enough to put him on the weekly leaderboard of 1% owned players.

3) Tobias Rieder, Phoenix: Toby ranks on my list of players who are better in real life hockey than they are at fantasy. He gets plenty of ice time but the offense is limited. He does have 3 PTS in his last 3 GP and gets a decent number of Shots. His +/- could hurt you if that’s something you care about.

Sell High:

1) Tom Wilson, Washington, (44% Yahoo ownership): It looks like Wilson has been demoted to the 3rd line, which does hurt his value. If you’re counting PIMs and Hits, he can still add some value to your roster. Just don’t expect those same offensive numbers if he’s not playing on the top lines.

2) Claude Giroux, Philadelphia, (98% Yahoo ownership): Giroux is on pace for a career high in points at age 30, and has scored 18 PTS in his last 11 GP. I own him in a standard league and he’s been one of my best players. I haven’t been putting him in trade offers, but his trade value will probably never be higher than it is right now. If I owned him in a keeper league, I’d be diligently trying to trade him.

3) Sean Monahan, Calgary, (92% Yahoo ownership): He was great earlier in the season, but only has 2 PTS in his last 9 GP.  I don’t think his recent slide is in any way permanent, so it’s an opportunistic time to make a trade offer.

Buy Low:

1) Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh, (100% Yahoo ownership): He’s 30 years and has put a few too many miles on the odometer the past few seasons. He’s currently on pace for the worst healthy season in his career sitting at under a point per game. His days of 100-point seasons are probably over. You might be able to acquire him at a discount, but be aware that his best productivity is behind him.

2) Kevin Shattenkirk, Rangers, (98% Yahoo ownership): He’s on pace for 47 PTS with 22 in his first 38 GP. However, he has gone cold in December with only 2 PTS in his last 11 GP. I wouldn’t recommend dropping him in standard leagues, but I did need to take a moment to think about whether or not he belonged in “buy low” or “be concerned”. It’s probably a little bit of both.

3) Brayden Schenn, St. Louis, (96% Yahoo ownership): He started the season on fire, but has cooled off considerably since the injury to Jaden Schwartz, scoring only 4 PTS in his last 10 GP. Eventually his line-mate will return to the line-up and the problem should be solved. In the meantime, his owner might be losing some patience, creating a trade opportunity.

Be concerned:

1) Max Pacioretty, Montreal, (92% Yahoo ownership): He’s on pace for 43 PTS, which would be his worst season since he was sophomore. He has only scored 4 PTS in 12 GP this month and doesn’t seem to be getting any better. He’s still under the age of 30 and could rebound if they put the right players around him, I just don’t expect that to happen this season. He should not be 92% owned. You can safely drop him in standard leagues.

2) Oliver Ekmanlarsson, Phoenix, (89% Yahoo ownership): It has been a down year for one of the better defensemen in fantasy hockey. He has only scored 1 point in his last 12 GP, over which span he’s -19. He is -29 on the season, which leads the NHL by a wide margin. He’s not getting you PTS and he’s killing your +/- if you play that category.


3) Thomas Greiss, Islanders, (33% Yahoo ownership): Over the last 30 days Greiss has only played in 6 games with 1 Win, a 4.97 GAA and .828 SV%. He’s been hurting you more than he helps you and should be dropped in every standard league.

Saturday, December 30, 2017

15 NHL Players Most Above/Below Expectations in 2017/18

Every year before the NHL season, I take the time to do forecasts for the top 600-700 players. It’s something that I dont do to publish, but rather to try and win my very deep and competitive fantasy league. We are now almost at the half way point of the 2017/18 season and I did a quick check to see which players are the most above, and which are the most below expectations. This was done by taking what I projected to be each player’s points per game, then multiplying it by how many games they have played so far this season. Ergo, nobody is on the naughty list simply because they have missed time.

Also note that one of the conditions is that I made a forecast for that player before the season. There's a few guys like Danton Heinen that I did not make a predicion for who are not on this list.


Exceeding Expectations


1) Josh Bailey, NYI, age 28: According to my projection, Bailey should have been at 23 PTS at the 38 GP mark, and instead he’s sitting at 49 PTS. That’s a 106-point pace for a guy who had a career high 56 PTS last season. He’s shattering his previous career high.

2) Mathew Barzal, NYI, age 20: It seemed like a safe bet in September to forecast Barzal to get 30-40 PTS as a rookie. I thought he’d have around 16 PTS at the 38 GP mark, and instead he’s got 36 PTS. It’s remarkable what he’s been able to do at that age.

3) Claude Giroux, Phi, age 30: Giroux declined from 86 PTS in 2015 to 58 PTS last season. My projection had him with a slight bounce back to 62 PTS (same as Voracek), which would have put him at 29 PTS after 38 GP, instead he’s got 46 PTS. That pace translates to 99 PTS over 82 GP, which would top his career best of 93 PTS.

4) Jakub Voracek, Phi, age 28: I had Voracek projected to score 62 PTS this season and instead he’s on pace to score 99 PTS over 82 GP. Unless he cools right off, he should be able to beat his career best of 81 PTS. I’d like to point out that while I was way off on how many PTS Giroux and Voracek would score, I did project them to get the same number. After 38 GP they do have the same number of PTS, so that much at least I got right.

5) Nathan MacKinnon, Col, age 22: In hindsight, my prediction of 58 PTS for MacKinnon was too low. That would have put him near 29 PTS after 37 GP, and instead he’s got 43 PTS. In my defense, 58 PTS would have been the best season he’s had since scoring 63 PTS as a rookie. He’s on pace to get 95 PTS over 82 GP.

6) Vlad Namestnikov, TB, age 25: Had I known that Vladdy was going to be playing most of the season with Kucherov and Stamkos, I’d have certainly boosted my prediction of 33 PTS for this guy, which would put him at 15 PTS after 37 GP, instead he’s got 32 PTS. That’s a pace for 71 PTS over 82 GP, which would shatter his career high of 35 PTS.

7) Brock Boeser, Van, age 20: Originally, I thought it was generous to predict Boeser would get 47 PTS over his first full NHL season. That would have put him around 22 PTS after 35 GP, and he’s got 38 PTS instead, translating to 89 PTS over 82 GP.

8) Sean Couturier, Phi, age 25: I was both right and wrong. I thought that Couturier was going to set a new career best this season, I just thought it would be 42 PTS. He’s already at 36 PTS after 38 GP, which puts him on pace for 78 PTS over 82 GP. He’s smashing his previous career high of 39 PTS.

9) Jon Marchessault, LV, age 27: I was not bullish on any Las Vegas players heading into this season, as I had expected them to be historically bad. The exact opposite came true. I thought Marchessault would score near 50 PTS this season, which felt very generous. Instead he’s on pace for 84 PTS over 82 GP.

10) Anders Lee, NYI, age 27: My preseason prediction for Lee was 54 PTS in 82 GP, which would have been a career best, and put him at 25 PTS after 38 GP. Instead he has scored 39 PTS, which is a pace of 84 PTS over 82 GP.

11) John Tavares, NYI, age 27: Prior to the season I had Tavares projected to score 74 PTS, which would have been his best season since 2015 (when he scored a career high 86 PTS). That projection would put him at 35 PTS after 38 GP, and instead he’s at 49 PTS. At this pace, he should top the 100-point barrier and smash his previous career best. Good time to hit the UFA market…

12) Kevin Fiala, NSH, age 21: I downgraded my prediction for Fiala after a serious leg injury in last year’s playoffs. I thought he’d be around 13 PTS after 36 GP, instead he’s scored 26, doubling my forecast. He recovered from that injury quicker and better than expected.

13) Dustin Brown, LA, age 33: I’m not sure what happened here, whether Brown re-dedicated himself to working out hard in the offseason, or if perhaps he searched the globe and found the elixir of life. I predicted he’d score 35 PTS, and he’s already got 29 PTS after 38 GP.

14) Anze Kopitar, LA, age 30: Perhaps I put too much stock into his decline down to 52 PTS last season, as I had him scoring 60 PTS, a slight bounce back. He already has 40 PTS in 38 GP this season and is on pace for 86 PTS over 82 GP (which would be a new career high) at an age when most players start to decline.

15) William Karlsson, LV, age 25: I thought that Karlsson would have a respectable season of 39 PTS for an offensively challenged expansion team. That would have put him at 17 PTS after 36 GP, instead he’s got 29 PTS. That’s a pace of 66 PTS over 82 GP. I'm not sure anybody predicted that.


Below Expectations


1) Conor Sheary, Pit, age 25: Last season Sheary managed to collect 53 PTS in 61 GP, so my projection had him scoring 59 PTS in 74 GP (with a slight drop in his PTS per game). Turns out there has been a large drop in his PTS per game (by over 50%). I thought he’d have 31 PTS after 39 GP and instead he’s got only 15 PTS.

2) Sam Reinhart, Buf, age 22: I predicted Reinhart to get 56 PTS in 81 GP, but it’s been a very disappointing season for the youngster. Where my forecast would have had him at 31 PTS after 39 GP, he’s only got 15 PTS.

3) Max Pacioretty, Mtl, age 29: Habs fans are well aware that Maximus is coming in below expectations. I had him at 68 PTS, but he’s only on pace for 43. Fantasy hockey owners have been slow to drop him as he’s still over 90% owned. You can safely drop him in standard leagues.

4) Joel Eriksson Ek, Min, age 21: I did not expect Eriksson Ek to only have 5 PTS through 31 GP. My projection would have put him at 17 PTS at this stage of the season. He’s a blue-chip prospect who probably just needs more seasoning in the minors.

5) Jake Guentzel, Pit, age 23: It hasn’t been a terrible season for Guentzel, who has 23 PTS in 39 GP, but his PTS per GP has declined. I predicted that he would be at 34 PTS at this point in the season (he scored 33 PTS in 40 GP last year).

6) Victor Rask, Car, age 24: Not sure what happened to this guy. I predicted he’d score 52 PTS in 82 GP. That would have put him at 22 PTS after 35 GP, instead he’s got 11. He’s on pace for 26 PTS over a full schedule (when he’s averaged 46.5 PTS over the last 2 seasons). Maybe he’ll bounce back and be fine, maybe this is a problem. He’s got 4 years left on that contract.

7) Jason Spezza, Dal, age 34: Spezza has been consistently around the 60 PTS per 82 GP scoring pace the last few seasons, but it would appear as though age has finally caught up to him. He’s on pace for just 34 PTS over 82 GP at age 34, and he’s got another year left on his contract at $7.5M AAV. Ouch.

8) Max Domi, Pho, age 22: My projection for Domi was 53 PTS in 73 GP, which would have put him at 29 PTS after 40 GP, instead he’s got 19 PTS. That would translate to 39 PTS over 82 GP, which is significantly below the 52 PTS he scored as a rookie.

9) Brock Nelson, NYI, age 26: Last season Nelson scored 45 PTS in 81 GP. I thought he would make a small gain up to 48 PTS, but he’s been trending in the wrong direction, on pace for 26 PTS (which would tie a career low).

10) Nolan Patrick, Phi, age 19: I was not expecting this top draft pick to have a monster season, but thought he might reach a respectable 42 PTS in 72 GP which would have translated to 17 PTS over the first 29 games. Instead he’s got just 7 PTS, which puts him in a tie for 37th best in Rookie scoring.

11) Sidney Crosby, Pit, age 30: Sid the Kid is on pace for the worst PTS per GP average of his professional career, with fewer PTS than GP. He’s always had more points than games in his career. He’s also turned 30 years old and made deep playoff runs the last 2 seasons. He may be paying a price for his post-season success.

12) Nicklas Backstrom, Wsh, age 30: He hit a dry spell where he got hardly any points over a matter of weeks, but has rebounded lately. I thought he’d be at 38 PTS after 38 GP, instead he’s at 28 PTS. Putting him on a line with Tom Wilson seems to have made all the difference.

13) Kevin Hayes, NYR, age 25: After scoring 49 PTS last season, I thought Hayes would improve up to 54 PTS and he’s gone in the opposite direction, on pace for 35 PTS over 82 GP.

14) Markus Granlund, Van, age 25: Granlund had a breakout season in 2016/17 with a career high 32 PTS. I projected him to follow that up with a 40-point season, but he’s currently on pace for 20 PTS. He’s picked up the scoring pace after the injury to Bo Horvat increased his ice time, but that should dry up again when Horvat returns.


15) Nick Foligno, Clb, age 30: There has been a large variance in Foligno’s point output the last 5 years (39, 73, 37, 51). I had him scoring 49 PTS this season, which would put him at 24 PTS in the 39 games he’s already played. Instead he’s got 14 and is currently on pace for the lowest point total over a full season in his career.

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Expected NHL Salary of World Juniors Draft Picks

The World Junior tournament is upon us again. NHL fans get an opportunity to watch their team's draft picks perform on the world stage. What future salary can we expect the players from each country to earn in the NHL? This is estimated using the cap hit from NHL Numbers for players who played in the WJC at any age and were drafted to the NHL at any point under the age of 21. Ergo all the players were taken from the pool of NHL draft picks from 2004 to 2011 who played at least 1 game in the tournament.



Team Canada players have by far the highest expected NHL salary of any country at age 23 with $1.8M. The high volume of players produced by Canada makes for very competitive tryouts with the national team. Roughly 50% of Team Canada draft picks will earn over $1M at age 23 and 14% will earn over $4M. Generally, the majority of Team Canada's roster has already been drafted prior to their first appearance in the Tournament. NHL Teams don't often get to draft players who played on Team Canada and instead hope their draft picks make the tournament after having already been drafted. Players who have a productive tournament can dramatically increase their market value.

You may notice the E[V] for Finland is very low. That country has come on strong in recent tournaments, but that bumper crop which started to appear in the 2012 draft has not yet turned 23 years old so are not included in the sample. From 2004 to 2011, there were 5 non-goalie Fins drafted in the first round; from 2012-2016, there were 11. The recent wave of elite Fins does not factor into any of the graphs below or above.

Furthermore, 33% of these draft picks who played for Team Finland would not go on to play any games of North American pro (NHL AHL ECHL) by age 23. It's unclear if the reason is that they didn't want to leave Europe, or weren't good enough to get a contract. Probably a little bit of both. During this time period, Finland was much better known for producing elite goaltending talent, which started to change with the arrival of Teravainen, Ganlund, Barkov, and Ristolainen.


The graph above is expected salary at the age of 23. The next graph takes the total sum of all NHL earnings for players from 2004-2017 before the age of 28. The graph above is an average at a specific age, the graph below is the sum of all ages (up to and including 27). As you can see, Sweden and USA will produce similar salaried players on average, but the Americans produce a greater volume of draft picks.





Coming To America


At what rate do draft picks from the WJC go on to play North American pro? For Team USA and Team Canada the answer is 100%. 




Russia has a similar NA pro conversion rate as Finland but a much higher Expected future NHL salary. This is partially because the Russians produced more high-end talent than Finland over the sample (such as Ovechkin, Malkin, Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, etc). We have seen some of the elite Russian talent fall in the draft because of the "Russian factor" whereby NHL teams are afraid to draft Russians too high on fears they won't leave the KHL. In reality, they are converting players to North American pro at a similar rate to other European countries.

Swedish players will stay in Europe at a similar rate to Russians for ages 18, 19, and 20. By age 21 that starts to change, with 71% of draft picks from Team Sweden on an NHL entry level contract, versus 46% for Russians. Czechs are by far the most likely to come over to North America to play junior hockey. 73% of Team Czech draft picks will play more than 9 games of CHL at age 18.

These graphs do a good job of illustrating the expected future value of NHL draft picks from different World Junior programs. Canada is easily the best. There has been more discussion recently about the Americans closing the gap, but that is not being shown in the data sample that was used here. If the gap has indeed started to close just in the past few seasons, we won't see that in this data. Those prospects need a chance to play more NHL games and accumulate pro salary data before this type of analysis is possible.


Tuesday, December 26, 2017

NHL Prospects Who Increased Value Most Following World Junior Tournament

Here is a list of the top 20 NHL draft picks who had the biggest increase in expected future value following a World Junior U20 Championship at 19-years-old from 2006 to 2017. Expected future value is estimated using player rank from the Hockey News Future Watch magazine. The magazine is generally released about 2 months after the tournament. They rank the top 75 prospects in the whole league, and the 10 best on each team, so 300 kids get featured.

These are only players who were NHL draft picks and were eligible for Future Watch as 18-year-olds. That allows us to measure their change in Future Watch rank shortly after the tournament. Players born after September 15 are not included because they are only eligible for one more tournament after being drafted, and I wanted everyone measured by the same criteria.

Oh, and goalies are also not included.

1) Kirill Kaprizov, Russia 2017, Minnesota: This 5th round pick was ranked as Minnesota's 6th best prospect in the 2016 FW, then after 12 PTS in the WJC and a great season in the KHL, Kaprizov jumped up to the 13th best NHL prospect in 2017.

2) Kris Letang Canada 2007, Pittsburgh: Letang was ranked as the 10th best prospect on the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2006 FW, then after scoring 6 PTS in the 2007 WJC rose to 10th best prospect in the whole NHL. He wasn't just on the gold medal winning team, he was also the captain.

3) Thomas Chabot Canada 2017, Ottawa: Being named MVP of the WJC can really boost your stock. Chabot ranked as the 38th best NHL prospect in 2016 FW, then after a sensational WJC in 2017 with 10 PTS as MVP, he shot up to the 3rd spot in 2017 FW.

4) John Carlson, USA 2010, Washington: Carlson was the 27th ranked prospect in 2009 FW, then he scored 7 PTS in the WJC and boosted his rank to 5th in 2010. He finished that season playing in the NHL, and never looked back.

5) Christain Dvorak, USA 2016, Phoenix: Dvorak ranked as the 48th best NHL prospect in the 2015 FW and jumped up to the 10th spot in 2016 after 8 PTS in the WJC.

6) Partick Berglund, Sweden 2008, St Louis: Berglund ranked as the 57th best NHL prospect in 2007 FW, then climbed up to 5th in 2008 after 7 PTS in the WJC.

7) Anthony Duclair, Canada 2015, Rangers: Duclair only ranked as the Rangers 6th best prospect in 2014 FW, then jumped all the way up to 17th in the whole NHL in 2015 FW after a great showing for Canada at the WJC.

8) PK Subban Canada 2009, Montreal: PK fell to the 2nd round of the draft, and it became evident quickly that he had fallen too far. Less than a year after falling in the draft, he ranked as the 69th best NHL prospect in 2008 FW, then after scoring 9 PTS in the 2009 WJC, he was promoted to the 15th.

9) Derek Stepan, USA 2010, Rangers: Stepan was the Rangers 5th best prospect in 2009, then after 15 PTS at the 2010 WJC, he shot up to the 16th best prospect in the whole NHL. He was captain of the American team that upset Canada.

10) Joel Eriksson Ek, Sweden 2017, Minnesota: He ranked 23rd in the 2016 FW and climbed all the way up to 5th in 2017 after a strong 9 PTS at the WJC.

11) Maxim Goncharov, Russia 2009, Phoenix: He was a 5th round pick in 2007 who did not get ranked in the 2008 FW. He scored 6 PTS for Russia at the 2009 WJC and was ranked as the 21st best NHL FW prospect shortly after. This did not translate into NHL stardom.

12) Jamie Benn, Canada 2009, Dallas: A 5th round pick in 2007, Benn was already FW relevant by 2008 ranking as the 3rd best prospect in Dallas. After scoring 6 PTS at the 2009 WJC, he climbed up to the 33rd best prospect in the NHL.

13) Mark Stone, Canada 2012, Ottawa: He was a 6th round pick who did not get ranked in the 2011 FW. Then after leading Team Canada in scoring with 10 PTS in the 2012 WJC, he became the 45th best prospect in the NHL.

14) Johnny Gaudreau, USA 2013, Calgary: Johnny H ranked as Calgary's 4th best prospect in 2012. In the 2013 WJC he led the tournament in Goals with 7 and helped USA win gold. He was the 50th best NHL prospect shortly after.

15) Filip Forsberg, Sweden 2014, Washington: He ranked as the 21st best NHL prospect in 2013 FW, then after scoring 12 PTS at the WJC jumped up to 5th. Shortly after being ranked as the 5th best prospect in Future Watch, he was traded to Nashville for Martin Erat, in one of the all-time terrible trades.

16) Mikael Granlund, Finland 2012, Minnesota: Scouts already knew Granlund was really good when he ranked as the 20th best NHL prospect in FW 2011. Then after scoring 11 PTS in the 2012 WJC, he became the 2nd best NHL prospect in FW.

17) Jordan Greenway, USA 2017, Minnesota: He burst onto the scene with a strong performance in the 2017 WJC, with 8 PTS and dominating physical play. He had been Minnesota's 5th best prospect in 2016, then jumped up to 36th best NHL prospect a year later. 

18) Max Domi, Canada 2015, Phoenix: Domi was not selected to team Canada in 2014 but still managed to rank 18th in that year's FW. After a very strong 10 PTS in 2015, he was promoted to the 5th best NHL prospect.

19) Brad Marchand, Canada 2008, Boston: Marchand did not get ranked in the 2007 FW after being drafted in 2006. He wasn't even listed as one of Boston's 10 best prospects. Then after scoring 6 PTS at the 2008 WJC, he became the 64th best NHL prospect.

20) Anthony Cirelli, Canada 2017, Tampa: Cirelli went unranked in the 2016 FW, then after a successful WJC with 7 PTS, made it as the 72nd best NHL prospect in 2017.

Sunday, December 24, 2017

Should The Red Wings Renew Ken Holland?

Ken Holland is probably heading for the Hall of Fame. As General Manager he’s won 3 Stanley Cups (plus 1 Cup as an assistant GM) and helped put together a streak of 25 consecutive playoff appearances. He became the Red Wings GM in 1997 and inherited a team that had just won the Stanley Cup, a team he had helped build as an assistant. He may have inherited Lidstrom and Yzerman, but he drafted Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Whatever impact he had on the first 2 Cups of the Lidstrom dynasty, he sure had his fingerprints all over the next 2.

The Red Wings long playoff streak finally came to an end in 2017, and now the team finds itself in a dark hole. Holland's contract will expire at the end of this season and it's still uncertain if he will sign a new deal. Feelings in Detroit are mixed. Fans owe him a debt of gratitude for the team's accomplishments under his tenure, but the current roster is a dumpster fire. Datsyuk is gone, and Zetterberg won't be far behind.

At this point I should mention that I've been a Red Wings fan since the 80s. By 2012 Ken Holland had reached legendary status as a General Manager, and I rarely questioned his decisions. I was pretty sure the man could walk on water if he tried. The moment when I first raised my eyebrow was when he traded a 1st round pick for Kyle Quincey, which came weeks before Nick Lidstrom's retirement. Losing a Hall of Famer near the top of his game is always a devastating blow, and it's hard to replace them in free agency. I'm sure Holland pitched all the big names who became available. 

Where he needed to replace Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Stuart was through the draft...and that's been a problem. In the 4 drafts prior to Lidstrom's retirement, the Wings drafted 10 defensemen, Max Nicastro, Adam Almquist, Nick Jensen, Gleason Fournier, Ben Marshall, Richard Nedomlel, Mattias Backman, Alexey Marchenko, Ryan Sproul, and Xavier Ouellet. None of those guys are a legit top four defenseman, and 2 of them currently make up the Wings bottom pairing. In the 4 drafts after Lidstrom's retirement, the Wings only drafted 6 defensemen, and it looks like they'll all be strikeouts. 

Over 8 drafts surrounding Lidstrom's retirement, they drafted 16 defensemen and have 2 bottom pair D to show for it. That makes some sense. Between 2007 (Brendan Smith) to 2016 (Dennis Cholowski), they did not draft any defensemen in the 1st round. 14 of 16 were drafted after the 2nd round. It's remarkably difficult to land top-4 D after the 2nd round. If you're going to rely almost exclusively on rounds 3+ to pick defensemen for 8 consecutive drafts, you're at serious risk of ending up in their current predicament.

Holland has not done well drafting defensemen. He has tended to use his top picks on forwards, hitting a home run on Dylan Larkin, and to a lesser extent, Anthony Mantha. Evgeny Svechnikov is struggling to score in the AHL this season with 5 PTS in 25 GP. Michael Rasmussen did not even get invited to Canada's World Junior camp. Holland's batting average in the draft has been getting worse.

Now I'd like to grade all his significant trade and free agency decisions. Because when you look at the sum of what he's done post-Lidstrom, it's valid to question if he's an effective re-builder. He made a Hall of Fame career putting the right pieces around Nick Lidstrom, and ever since he lost his horse in 2012, it's been a downward spiral. He did a good job of adding picks at last year's trade deadline when it became apparent the playoff streak was ending. 

He gets an F on drafting defensemen; a grade that re-appears a few times analyzing his individual transactions since Lidstrom's retirement.

Trades

*Feb 2012 Traded a 1st round pick for Kyle Quincey. That pick could have been Olli Maata, Mike Matheson, or Brady Skjei. If you want to argue Quincey was necessary to extend the playoff streak, then maybe it's a C-, certainly in terms of rebuilding, it was an F. Grade: D-

*Mar 2014 traded Calle Jarnkrok and a 2nd round pick for David Legwand. Legwand did little to help the team. Maybe he helped them make the playoffs and this a D+, but he had no PTS in the playoffs and those were two good assets. Grade: F

*Mar 2015 traded a 3rd round pick for Marek Zidlicky. Zidlicky was out of the league a year later. Grade: D-

*Mar 2015 traded a 2nd round pick and Mattias Janmark for Erik Cole and a 3rd round pick. Cole's NHL career was over 11 games later. Grade: F

*Jun 2016 traded Jakob Chychrun and Pavel Datsyuk's dead contract to Phoenix for Dennis Cholowski. We'll have to wait to see how good Cholowski becomes. Chychrun went directly to the NHL. Grade: D+

*Feb 2017 traded Brendan Smith for 2nd and 3rd round picks. Grade: A

*Feb 2017 traded Tomas Jurco for a 3rd round pick. Grade: B+

*Mar 2017 traded Thomas Vanek for a 3rd round pick. Grade: B+

Free Agents

*Jul 2012 signed Jordin Tootoo to a 3 year $5.7M contract that was eventually bought out. Grade: F-

*Nov 2013 re-signed Jonathon Ericsson to a 6 year $25.5M contract that expires when he's 36. This may have helped extend the playoff streak, but the contract reached awful status by 2016. Grade: D-

*Apr 2013 re-signed Jimmy Howard to a 6 year $31.8M contract. Grade: F+

*Jun 2013 re-signed Jakub Kindl to a 4 year $9.6M contract. Grade: F-

*Jul 2013 signed Stephen Weiss to a 5 year $24.5M contract that was bought out after 2 years. Grade: F-

*Jul 2015 re-signed Gustav Nyquist to a 4 year $19M contract. Grade: B-

*
Jul 2015 signed Mike Green to a 3 year $18M contract. I might have to come back and change this grade after the trade deadline, but currently...Grade: D-

*Nov 2015 re-signed Justin Abdelkader to a 7 year $29.8M contract. He turned 30 years old in year one. This contract will get worse, the offensive production has already slowed. Grade F

*Jul 2016 re-signed Danny DeKeyser to a 6 year $30M contract. Grade: D

*Jul 2016 re-signed Darren Helm to a 5 year $19.2M contract. Grade: F

*Jul 2016 signed Frans Nielsen to a 6 year $31.5M contract that expires when he's 38. Grade: F

*Jul 2016 re-signed Tomas Tatar to a 4 year $21.2M contract. Grade: D

*Jul 2017 signed Trevor Dailey to a 3 year $9.5M contract. Grade: D-

There is an argument to be made that all his bad transactions were more about making it to the playoffs every year instead of re-building, and now the sum of these short-term decisions has created a long-term problem. If ownership was telling him to win at all costs you could argue he's blameless for the current predicament. The fact that Detroit is no longer an appealing destination for free agents has probably compounded the problem and forced him to overpay. That being said, I'm sure Mr Ilitch never told him to do a terrible job drafting defensemen, and draft picks don't get to choose what city they play in.

Thank you for your service Ken Holland. It's been a great ride and you've got your seat reserved in the Hall of Fame. It's time for new blood. Unfortunately, the perfect guy for the job is already employed down in Tampa. There's no guarantee the next GM will do a better job. Being a General Manager in the NHL is incredibly difficult. Looking at the last 5 years and where we currently find ourselves, it’s time to move on. 

NHL 2017 Week 12 Fantasy Hockey Report

Players to watch, all formats:

1) Mathew Barzal, Islanders, (58% Yahoo ownership): The kid already has 35 PTS in 36 GP and most definitely needs to be added in more leagues. I added him in a standard league a few weeks ago and he’s been doing great. He’s got 7 PTS in his last 4 GP.

2) Noah Hanifin, Carolina, (22% Yahoo ownership): The kid is on pace for 45 PTS and 190 shots, which is a substantial improvement on last season’s 29 PTS and 108 shots. At this rate his ownership should be in the 60%+ range, especially in keeper and dynasty formats.

3) James Reimer, Florida, (27% Yahoo ownership): The outlook for Reimer was looking bleak just a few weeks ago, but since Luongo has been injured, he’ been playing well. He was just named the NHL’s 3rd star for the week. Over his last 7 GP he’s 4-2-1 with a 1.85 GAA and .946 SV%. If you need starts, he’s probably available on most standard league waiver wires.

4) Matt Dumba, Minnesota, (53% Yahoo ownership):  Dumba has yet to reach his projected offensive ceiling at age 23, but he’s on pace to eclipse 40 PTS this season. He’s got 5 PTS in his last 8 GP. He’s a safe add in standard leagues.

5) Zach Parise, Minnesota, (41% Yahoo ownership): Parise has been injured all season but is said to be close to a return. He’s immediately standard league relevant as soon as he’s back. He could end up being a bit slow out of the gate. You may want to wait until he’s played a few games before picking him up.

Going Deep: players owned in 10% of leagues or less:

1) Brian Boyle, New Jersey, (9% Yahoo ownership): It’s hard not to cheer for this guy. Despite his health issues, he’s managed to put up 9 PTS in his last 6 GP. I'm not sure if he ever had 9 PTS in a 6 game stretch before getting cancer.

2) Adam Lowry, Winnipeg, (2% Yahoo ownership): He was dropped in my 18-team league and did not stay on the waiver very long before being claimed. 4 PTS in his last 4 GP is good. He can also help you out in hits and face-off wins if you play those categories.

3) Juuse Saros, Nashville, (5% Yahoo ownership): There will continue to be limits on his upside while Pekka Rinne is healthy. Over his last 5 GP Saros has a 1.59 GAA and .956 SV%. He’s had some great starts and the Predators are using him more often. I’d certainly want to own Saros if I owned Rinne.

4) Kevin Lebanc, San Jose, (3% Yahoo ownership): Lebanc has had some small samples of fantasy hockey relevance. He scored 20 PTS in 56 GP last season and already has 17 PTS in 29 GP in 2017/18. 6 PTS in his last 3 GP is pretty good too.

5) Jake Debrusk, Boston, (4% Yahoo ownership): I would like to see his ice time increase before making a long-term commitment, but he’s a young player with upside who has scored 4 PTS in his last 4 GP. He’s worth a gamble in deeper leagues.

The 1%: Top 3 Players to Add that are 1% Owned or Less

1) Derek Ryan, Carolina: He already has 20 PTS this season and is on pace to get close to 50. That’s a guy who needs to be owned in more than 0% of leagues.

2) Mark Barberio, Colorado: This is not somebody who was on my radar prior to the season, but his ice time has climbed up over 20 minutes per game recently and he’s got 5 PTS in his last 7 GP. At the very least he needs to be added in my 18-team league. I might take a quick break to go do that.

3) David Desharnais, Rangers: He’s been running hot and cold for most of the season, scoring at a 45-point pace. That’s not bad. He can provide some value in the deepest of leagues.

Sell High:

1) James Neal, Vegas, (90% Yahoo ownership): It’s not unreasonable to expect the Golden Knights to cool down in the second half. Neal has been doing well with 8 PTS in his last 8 GP, but I still feel like that ownership % is too high. If I owned him, I’d be shopping him in trade offers.

2) Dustin Brown, LA, (80% Yahoo ownership): Brown is a player that I fully expect to cool off in the 2nd half. His season thus far has been a remarkable comeback story, but we’ll see his age start to show as the season drags on. I’d be aggressively shopping him if he were on my team.

3) Brent Burns, San Jose, (100% Yahoo ownership): It was a terrible start to the season for Burns who has been red hot as of late. He’s scored 12 PTS in his last 8 GP and looks like the guy who won the Norris Trophy last season. Either we can forget about the bad start, or take it as a warning that age decline may be on the horizon. It’s fine to hold on to him for the rest of the season in re-draft leagues, but if you’ve got him in a keeper league, now might be the best time to sell.

Buy Low:

1) Pekka Rinne, Nashville, (99% Yahoo ownership): It’s probably a bit too soon to be concerned about Rinne, who has given up 9 goals in his last 2 starts while his back-up has been playing fantastic. Saros is starting to get a greater share of the starts, which is problematic for Rinne owners who need a workhorse. If you’ve got Rinne in a deep keeper league, then yes, maybe it’s time to start worrying.

2) Alex Pietrangelo, St Louis, (99% Yahoo ownership): This Norris Trophy contender recently missed a few games due to injury and has only scored 4 PTS in his last 12 GP. It’ll still be hard to get him, but easier now than it was a month ago.

3) Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh, (78% Yahoo ownership): Just 1 point in his last 8 GP might have the Guentzel owner in your league a little bit nervous. He’s in the top 10 players dropped on Yahoo today. He’s a guy that I’d be targeting right now.

Be concerned:

1) Scott Darling, Carolina, (56% Yahoo ownership): Over the last 30 days, Darling has a 3.18 GAA and .889 SV%. If he’s your #1 goalie in reality or fantasy, you’re probably outside the playoff picture.

2) Nazem Kadri, Toronto, (76% Yahoo ownership): Naz has gone pointless in 10 straight games, which is far too low for a player over 70% ownership. Leaf fans will probably still hold on to him if doesn’t score any PTS for the rest of the season, but non-Leaf fans can safely drop him in standard leagues if you haven’t already.

3) Mikko Koivu, Minnesota, (25% Yahoo ownership): If your league counts face-off wins, then he still has some value. He can be dropped in all other formats. He has scored just 1 point in his last 14 GP.



Friday, December 22, 2017

10 Best and Worst NHL Contracts Coming Off Entry Level

What are the 10 best and 10 worst contracts given to players in the salary cap era coming off their entry level contracts? The best list mostly excludes players who signed for more than 10% of the salary cap. This is looking at the best bargains, not necessarily just the best players. Hence why Crosby and McDavid aren’t here. I could easily have made the best 30 contracts coming off entry level. There are a bunch of good ones to choose from.


BEST

1) John Tavares, Islanders, Sept 14 2011, 6 years $33M: Signed by Garth Snow. They got an MVP candidate for $5.5M AAV. This was listed on my “15 best contracts in hockey” from beginning to end, and ranked as the #1 best bargain for multiple seasons. 344 GP, 335 PTS over the first 5 seasons.

2) Nikita Kucherov, Tampa, Oct 11 2016, 3 years $14.3M: Signed by Steve Yzerman. This contract is unreal for one of the league’s top goal scorers. It confused me at the time. He must not have been willing to miss games and just accepted the best offer even though he’s clearly worth much more. The average price for 30+ goal scorers coming off entry level is $5.5M AAV, and that’s not even accounting for cap inflation. Where were the offer sheets? The Lightning could get 140 Goals for $14.3M. Wow.

3) Victor Hedman, Tampa, Dec 1 2011, 5 years $20M: Signed by Steve Yzerman. This has to be in the top 10 best contracts in the whole NHL under the salary cap era. He had 232 PTS in 335 GP from the blueline. Yzerman signed him at low point in his production. By the second season of the contract he scored 55 PTS.

4) Jonathan Quick, LA, Oct 23 2009, 3 years $5.4M: Signed by Dean Lombardi. He won a Stanley Cup and was the playoff MVP. Bargain. Over those 3 regular seasons he went 88 W-56 L, with a 2.16 GAA and .919 SV%. Came 2nd in Vezina voting in year two.

5) Kris Letang, Pittsburgh, Mar 30 2010, 4 years $14M: Signed by Ray Shero. In the first year of this contract Letang nearly doubled his point production up to 50 PTS in 82 GP. He averaged close to 24 minutes per game, quickly becoming the Penguins best defensemen.

6) Claude Giroux, Philadelphia, Nov 8 2010, 3 years $11.3M: Signed by Paul Holmgren. He scored 227 PTS in 207 GP, which is a steal at that price. They managed to get “Peak Giroux” at a discount, but then over-payed on his next contract.

7) Jamie Benn, Dallas, Jan 24 2013, 5 years $26.3M: Signed by Joe Nieuwendyk. He went from being a good player at age 23, elevating into the elite tier of players by age 24. He finished this contract with 357 PTS in 363 GP.  This is probably among the 10 best value contracts signed in the entire salary cap era.

8) Tyler Seguin, Boston, Sep 11 2012, 6 years $34.5M: Signed by Peter Chiarelli. He never played a game in Boston under this contract. He was traded in July 2013 and Bruins fans have not stopped complaining about it since. He scored 84 PTS in year one.

9) Roman Josi, Nashville, June 10 2013, 7 years $28M: Signed by David Poile. This is one of the best bargains in the NHL right now and probably makes the list for 10 best NHL contracts since 2005. His points per game almost doubled from the last year of his entry level to the 2nd year of this contract. I guess his agent didn’t expect he’d be as good as he’s become. This contract cost his client millions of dollars going 7 years for that low number.

10) Andrei Vasilevsky, Tampa, July 1 2016, 3 years $10.5M: Signed by Steve Yzerman. Leave it to Yzerman to hit another big home run on a contract coming off entry level. This goalie could be a Vezina nominee every year of this contract and a strong contender to win the award at least one of them.

WORST

1) Thomas Vanek, Buffalo, July 6 2007, 7 years $50M: Signed by Darcy Regier. This was an offer sheet signed by the Edmonton Oilers and matched by Buffalo. He did score 424 PTS over the span of this contract, but in hindsight the team would have been way smarter to let him go to Edmonton and take the 4 first round picks compensation.

2) David Booth, Florida, July 1st 2009, 6 years $25.5M: Signed by Randy Sexton. He scored 60 PTS the season before earning this contract and never came close to that point total again. They managed to trade him to Vancouver (with a 3rd round pick) for Sturm and Samuelsson in an exchange of bad contracts.

3) Rostislav Olesz, Florida, June 30 2008, 6 years $18.8M: Signed by Jacques Martin. This was an example of giving a long-term contract to a young unproven player that blew up in their face. He scored 26 PTS in 56 GP the season before signing this contract. He would finish it in the AHL before being bought out.

4) Cody Hodgson, Sep 11 2013, 6 years $25.5M: Signed by Darcy Regier. He scored 20 goals and 44 PTS while averaging 18m of ice time per game in year one, then in year two his production completely collapsed down to 13 PTS in 78 GP and was bought out. He retired a year later at age 26.

5) Cam Barker, Chicago, July 6 2009, 3 years $9.25M: Signed by Dale Tallon. This contract was bought out. The Blackhawks did not win a Cup until they traded this contract to Minnesota. His career took a steep nose dive almost the moment he left Chicago.

6) Jared Cowen, Ottawa, Sep 13 2013, 4 years $12.4M: Signed by Brian Murray. I’m not too sure how the wheels fell off this bus, but his career was looking promising before it started to nose dive in 2015. He was eventually dumped on Toronto but played zero games with that team before being bought out.

7) Alexey Marchenko, Detroit, July 1 2016, 2 years $2.9M: Signed by Ken Holland. He only played one season of 41 GP before his contract was terminated. The Leafs claimed him off waivers from Detroit, then bought out the contract a few months later.

8) Damien Brunner, New Jersey, Sep 24 2013, 2 years $5M: Signed by Lou Lamoriello. He scored 32 PTS in 77 GP for the Devils before his contract was terminated and he returned to Switzerland.

9) Nail Yakupov, Apr 13 2015, 2 years $5M: Signed by Steve Tambellini. He played 100 games and scored just 32 PTS while being traded to St. Louis. He’s probably the worst 1st overall pick since Patrick Stefan.


10) Anders Lindback, July 6 2012, 2 years $3.6M: Signed by Steve Yzerman. His two seasons in Tampa saw him post a 2.90 GAA and a SV% below .900. That’s not worth $1.8M AAV.