NHL 1st Round Draft Pick Probabilities and Expected Value

What is the expected value of a first round pick in the NHL draft? Answers below.


ABOUT THE DATA

The 2016 NHL Draft Study is basically spreadsheet of nearly every NHL draft pick from 2004 - 2013 (goalies and players older than 21 on draft day not included), almost 2000 players total. The data includes production, games played at every level/age, and salary earned between age 18 and 25. The entire sample has only played in the NHL under a salary cap. Statistics from the 2015/16 season have yet to be added. For more information about the data, click here.

Age: In this study, age refers to how old the player is on Sept 15th of any given season, since that's the draft cut off. It means that the "18 year old season" is the season after the first year of draft eligibility regardless of what month the player was born.

Statistical Career Milestone Probabilities

Below are 3 charts to determine the probability that a player reaches any given career milestone for NHL GP, NHL PTS, and AHL GP by any given age. The chart at the bottom is for Expected GP and PTS.

Important Notes:

*It is intended as a cumulative probability, but because of the nature of this time-series analysis, doesn't always behave that way.

Analysis:

* 57% of first round draft picks will play at least 100 NHL games before age 23

	PROBABILITY OF NHL GP MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	81.7%	18.3%	13.0%	x	x
19	52.5%	47.5%	39.1%	11.3%	x
20	29.2%	70.8%	62.1%	25.7%	x
21	14.7%	85.3%	74.2%	41.8%	2.2%
22	10.3%	89.7%	82.6%	57.4%	11.3%
23	10.2%	89.8%	84.9%	65.7%	25.3%
24	11.0%	89.0%	83.8%	70.6%	41.9%
25	11.0%	89.0%	84.4%	69.7%	50.5%
	PROBABILITY OF NHL PTS MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	83.5%	16.5%	11.6%	0.4%	x
19	58.8%	41.2%	28.9%	2.8%	x
20	34.4%	65.6%	48.6%	7.9%	x
21	22.7%	77.3%	62.2%	15.1%	1.8%
22	14.4%	85.6%	69.7%	29.7%	3.6%
23	13.9%	86.1%	74.7%	39.2%	6.6%
24	14.7%	85.3%	72.8%	47.8%	7.4%
25	13.8%	86.2%	71.6%	47.7%	11.0%
	PROBABILITY OF AHL GP MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	81.7%	18.3%	3.5%	0.0%	x
19	52.5%	47.5%	27.1%	0.4%	x
20	23.7%	76.3%	66.0%	8.7%	x
21	20.4%	79.6%	72.9%	33.3%	x
22	21.0%	79.0%	72.3%	39.5%	0.0%
23	19.3%	80.7%	72.9%	42.2%	1.8%
24	19.9%	80.1%	73.5%	41.2%	4.4%
25	20.2%	79.8%	74.3%	45.0%	7.3%

	STATS/PICKS
	NHL	NHL	AHL	AHL
AGE	GP	PTS	GP	PTS
18	9.0	4.4	1.7	0.8
19	21.4	9.7	11.3	6.6
20	31.9	14.8	28.8	15.0
21	40.0	20.9	24.4	12.1
22	42.9	22.5	16.0	7.2
23	44.9	22.6	10.5	4.5
24	42.5	21.7	6.8	2.6
25	38.6	22.0	5.9	2.0
Sum	271.1	138.5	105.4	50.8

Salary and Expected Value

The Salary and Expected Value charts below provide some interesting information. The 18 year season is not included in the expected value calculation because only a tiny proportion of the population of draft picks are ready to jump immediately to the NHL, and there is very little variation in the salaries of those that do.

Then there is the ability to determine what proportion of the sample is earning what salary at any given age.  $0 players are those who play zero regular season games in the AHL or NHL. It's important to note that these are not career earnings below, but rather for that specific age.

Salary: Refers to NHL salary cap hit as listed at NHL Numbers.com, plus up to $50,000 per AHL season.

Expected Value: This is the amount a player earned in salary minus the expected salary of a player drafted in that position, at each age.

Important Notes:

*Salary/Pro: This variable is calculated by total amount of salary divided by the number of players who have turned pro (AHL or NHL).

*The sum at the bottom of SALARY INFO chart, the salary from age 18 is not included.

Analysis:

* On average, 1st round picks will earn $11.5M from age 18 to 25, varying by how quickly they begin earning NHL salary.

	SALARY INFO
		% of players earning this salary range
AGE	Salary/Pro	$0	< $1M	> $ 1M	> $4M
18	$2,335,447	66.5%	21.8%	11.6%	0.0%
19	$1,435,716	35.6%	40.1%	24.3%	0.0%
20	$929,728	6.7%	64.4%	28.9%	0.0%
21	$1,226,097	3.6%	58.7%	37.8%	6.7%
22	$1,624,333	5.6%	48.7%	45.6%	11.8%
23	$1,946,225	8.4%	39.8%	51.8%	16.9%
24	$2,158,042	18.4%	26.5%	55.1%	21.3%
25	$2,156,271	25.7%	22.9%	51.4%	22.9%
sum	$11,476,412
	SALARY AND EXPECTED VALUE
AGE	Salary-E[V]	E[V]	Sum(E{V])	Salary/GP	Salary/PTS
19	$42,950	$1,392,766	$1,392,766	$30,764	$67,673
20	$1,351	$928,377	$2,321,142	$26,258	$56,588
21	$20	$1,226,077	$3,547,220	$29,719	$56,943
22	$0	$1,624,333	$5,171,553	$37,658	$71,765
23	$0	$1,946,225	$7,117,778	$43,122	$85,702
24	$0	$2,158,042	$9,275,820	$50,830	$99,557
25	$0	$2,156,271	$11,432,091	$55,881	$98,176
Sum	$44,321

Development Matrix

If you would like to see how a sample of draft picks advances through different leagues and skill levels, welcome to the Development Matrix (or more correctly, matrices). If a draft pick played at least 1 game at any level last year, where is he likely to go next year?

Important Notes:

* KHL = Russian Elite, EurMA  = Euro Mainland Elite (Czeck, Slovakia, Germany, Swiss), ScanA = Scandinavian Elite (Sweden and Finland), EurB = All of the 2nd tier European leagues, EurJr = All European junior leagues,  CHL = Canadian Major Junior, WJC = Under 20 World Junior Championship, Tier II = All North American amateur that doesn't ruin NCAA eligibility, USDP = United States Development Program

* Age 17 is the first year of NHL draft eligibility.

* Charts meant to be read left to right, not up and down.

* Do not sum the numbers in any direction. It is what percentage of the sample played at least 1 game at any level and many play at more than one level.

Analysis:

* 58% of NHL 1st round draft picks played at least one game of Canadian Major Junior in their first year of draft eligibility.

%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 18
Sample	at Age 17	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
3.2%	KHL	11.1%	0.0%	22.2%	22.2%
2.5%	EurMA	57.1%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%
8.8%	ScanA	4.0%	0.0%	12.0%	24.0%
8.1%	EurB	17.4%	0.0%	8.7%	13.0%
3.5%	NCAA	20.0%	70.0%	20.0%	10.0%
57.7%	CHL	84.1%	0.0%	25.6%	24.4%
27.5%	WJC	26.9%	10.3%	17.9%	41.0%
13.0%	Eurjr	18.9%	0.0%	8.1%	8.1%
14.1%	Tier II	10.0%	80.0%	2.5%	2.5%
7.7%	USDP	31.8%	68.2%	4.5%	4.5%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 19
Sample	at Age 18	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
18.3%	NHL	13.5%	0.0%	28.8%	94.2%
18.3%	AHL	51.9%	0.0%	50.0%	46.2%
2.8%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	12.5%	37.5%
1.4%	EurMA	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	50.0%
7.4%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	42.9%	52.4%
5.3%	EurB	13.3%	0.0%	33.3%	33.3%
18.0%	NCAA	7.8%	76.5%	33.3%	23.5%
54.9%	CHL	58.3%	0.0%	45.5%	42.3%
46.8%	WJC	28.6%	12.0%	44.4%	56.4%
4.6%	Eurjr	15.4%	0.0%	53.8%	30.8%
1.4%	Tier II	50.0%	50.0%	25.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 20
Sample	at Age 19	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
46.5%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	46.9%	95.6%
38.4%	AHL	1.1%	0.0%	74.5%	71.3%
0.4%	ECHL	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
2.1%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	40.0%	80.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3.9%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	72.7%
1.8%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	40.0%	60.0%
14.4%	NCAA	0.0%	56.1%	51.2%	36.6%
34.5%	CHL	1.1%	0.0%	87.6%	60.7%
38.4%	WJC	0.0%	9.9%	74.3%	68.3%
1.1%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	33.3%
0.0%	Tier II	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 21
Sample	at Age 20	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
68.8%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	46.1%	94.1%
64.4%	AHL	0.0%	4.1%	81.6%	78.9%
2.0%	ECHL	0.0%	40.0%	100.0%	20.0%
0.8%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
0.8%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%
0.4%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
0.4%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
9.1%	NCAA	36.8%	5.3%	57.9%	42.1%
0.4%	CHL	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.4%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
0.0%	Tier II	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 22
Sample	at Age 21	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
81.3%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	29.5%	92.3%
58.2%	AHL	0.0%	4.5%	64.9%	75.7%
3.1%	ECHL	0.0%	33.3%	83.3%	0.0%
3.1%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	14.3%	57.1%
1.3%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%
0.4%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
1.3%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	33.3%
3.1%	NCAA	0.0%	42.9%	28.6%	42.9%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 23
Sample	at Age 22	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
81.5%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	21.6%	94.8%
38.5%	AHL	0.0%	4.6%	56.9%	63.1%
4.1%	ECHL	0.0%	75.0%	50.0%	0.0%
2.1%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2.1%	EurMA	0.0%	25.0%	25.0%	75.0%
1.5%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%
2.1%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%
0.0%	NCAA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%