Monday, July 25, 2016

Kris Russell Contract Comparables

Here we are closing in on August and one of the biggest perceived prizes of 2016 NHL Free Agency has not yet signed. Kris Russell needs a contract, and below are historical salary cap era comparable contracts for players of similar age and production. I can only speculate what his demands are, but it's safe to assume he's looking for the largest total sum and cares less about the average annual value.

It's important to note that not all the comparable contracts below worked out well. He's not quite as good as 2010/11 Paul Martin, and lacks the offensive upside of Sekera. 4 years is the absolute maximum term he should get, and even that might be too much. He blocks more shots than anyone in the league. I'm sure his body is dented in several places. It will be difficult to sustain that punishment into his 30s. The 4 year $16M deal seems like the most palatable overpayment, but I think if he were willing to accept that, he'd have a contract by now.

There is significant demand for Russell at the right price, but not at the wrong price. Cody Franson went through this last year and he's a better player. Buyer beware of the long term sustainability of this asset. If he can squeeze up into 5 years $20M we're probably looking at a future candidate for one of my worst contracts lists.

*Note in 2007 and 2008 the salary cap was down at $44M - $50M, and it's over $70M now. There has been cap inflation, but that doesn't change my valuation of Russell. I don't think he's in the class of player who has benefitted from cap inflation. I don't think Jay McKee's contract from 2007 is $6M AAV in today's money. Some things change, some things stay the same.


 Name
YEAR1
Term
Money
AAV
 Andrej Sekera
2016
6
$33,000,000
$5.5M
 Paul Martin
2011
5
$25,000,000
$5.0M
 Cory Sarich
2008
5
$18,000,000
$3.6M
 Jay McKee
2007
4
$16,000,000
$4.0M
 Tim Gleason
2013
4
$16,000,000
$4.0M
 Willie Mitchell
2007
4
$14,000,000
$3.5M
 Francois Beauchemin
2010
3
$11,400,000
$3.8M
 Douglas Murray
2010
4
$10,000,000
$2.5M
 Kyle Quincey
2015
2
$8,500,000
$4.25M
 Kyle McLaren
2007
3
$7,500,000
$2.5M

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Victor Rask Contract Comparables

On July 12, 2016 the Carolina Hurricanes signed 23 year old RFA Victor Rask to a 6 year, $24M contract (almost identical to the deal Cody Hodgson signed in 2013). Rask is coming off a season that saw him score 21 goals and 48 PTS in 80 games. With players of that age and production since the salary cap, 33.3% got deals greater than 3 years. For many players age 23 is the first year of non-entry level contracts, and for players who produce at a similar level to Rask, 2/3 get shorter term bridge deals.

While the majority of players in this category get a bridge deal, going longer term in the $3M -$5M range on a 2nd contract can lead to some magnificent bargains in the future (see Victor Hedman, or what should have been PK Subban). If we look at the top 10 comparable contracts below, it does force the question, does Victor Rask belong in this group?


 Name
POS
Term
Money
 Jordan Eberle
F
6
$36,000,000
 Corey Perry
F
5
$26,625,000
 Milan Michalek
F
6
$26,000,000
 Bobby Ryan
F
5
$25,500,000
 Cody Hodgson
F
6
$25,500,000
 Nick Bjugstad
F
6
$24,600,000
 Brendan Gallagher
F
6
$22,500,000
 Dave Bolland
F
5
$16,875,000
 Charlie Coyle
F
5
$16,000,000
 Michael Grabner
F
5
$15,000,000

Frans Nielsen Contract Comparables

On July 1st 2016 the Detroit Red Wings signed 32 year old Frans Nielsen to a 6 contract for $32M ($5.52M AAV). This is a lot of money and a lot of term to give to a 32 year old. 91% of contracts given out to players of that age (in the salary cap era) are less than 5 seasons long. 75% are 3 years or less. Of the 32 year olds who signed new contracts, 62% experienced a statistical decline in the first year of the contract.

There are very few direct comparables for Nielsen because NHL teams are generally reluctant to give that much term to 32 year old athletes. The hope for the Red Wings is that he does not have a significant injury history and may not decline like many do in their mid to late 30s. It's not uncommon for some Scandinavian players to remain productive older than expected (like Alfredsson, Lidstrom, Selanne, etc). If his Viking blood does not slow down his rate of decline, this could turn out to be a really bad contract.

Here are some comparables.

 Name
POS
YEAR1
Term
 Money 
 Kimmo Timonen
D
2008
6
$38,000,000
 Marian Gaborik
F
2015
7
$34,125,000
 Jason Spezza
F
2016
4
$30,000,000
 Lubomir Visnovsky
D
2009
5
$28,000,000
 Michael Cammalleri
F
2015
5
$25,000,000
 Joe Thornton
F
2012
3
$21,000,000
 Andy McDonald
F
2010
4
$18,800,000
 Alexandre Burrows
F
2014
4
$18,000,000
 Erik Cole
F
2012
4
$18,000,000
 Paul Kariya
F
2008
3
$18,000,000

Saturday, July 23, 2016

NHL Players With Declining PTS/GP After Signing Long Term Contracts

Have you ever noticed that some NHL players in the first year of a long term contract can suffer from large immediate declines in production? Here is my top ten list since the salary cap, goalies not included. Contracts that are at least 4 years long, ranked on 2 criteria: the size of the decline in points per game production in the first season of the contract, and the size of the contract.

Here they are:

1) David Clarkson, Toronto 2013/14: Has there ever been a more disappointing free agent arrival than Clarkson? It didn't help that his collapse came in the media firestorm of Toronto, or that he started to suck almost immediately. His Points Per Game dropped by 63% in the first year, coring just 5 goals. That's like a million dollars per goal.

2) Mikhail Grabovski, Toronto 2012/13: Mikhail only played one year of his 5 year $27.5M deal before the buyout, a season where he experienced a 52% decline in Points Per Game. It's safe to assume the conversation in the front office over whether or not to use a compliance buyout on Grabo did not require much deliberation. This contract had to be among the factors that led to the surprise ouster of Brian Burke.

3) Nick Foligno, Columbus 2015/16: What happened to Nick Foligno last season? He dropped from 73 PTS to 37 PTS the first season of a new 6 year $33M contract. At age 27 he should have been in a position for a career year, but instead it seems he may have peaked at 26. Blue Jackets fans sure have to hope he bounces back, because 5 more years at under 40 PTS is not what they're paying for. Yes he's a character guy, but beware paying too much for character.

4) Ville Leino, Buffalo 2011/2012: You could make a case that this was the worst contract ever awarded under the salary cap, 6 years $27M, at least when considering his small body of work in the NHL at the time of signing. It did not take long for people to notice that he wasn't earning his new contract. He scored just 10 goals over 3 seasons before the Sabres bought him out. He went back to Europe.

5) Christian Ehrhoff, Buffalo 2011/12: The Buffalo Sabres sure struck out hard with free agency in the summer of 2011. The owner told the GM to go out and spend, and the result was $67 Million for Ehrhoff and Leino. Ouch! This was a big reason that one of the longest serving General Managers in the NHL was fired in 2013 and got his next GM job in the minor leagues. If he has interviewed for any NHL GM jobs since, I gotta think the first question he's asked is "dude, Leino, Ehrhoff, WTF?"

6) Shawn Horcoff, Edmonton 2009/10: Horcoff was coming off 3 consecutive 50 point seasons before signing a rich new contract at age 30. He would only average slightly over 10 goals per season under this contract while earning a $5.5M AAV. The Oilers were/are too poor to afford burning this much on a declining asset. It was a front loaded contract that otherwise would have been a 2013 compliance buyout candidate if not for the fact that the real money on the back end was much smaller.

7) Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh 2009/10: Perhaps it was a Stanley Cup hangover that led Malkin to drop from 113 PTS in 2009 to 77 PTS in 2010, but Geno had his best year in the NHL at age 22 and has declined since. Don't get me wrong, he's still a world class player, but he signed an expensive new contract and then saw a production drop of 36 PTS. He fit the criteria for this list, but I still wouldn't call it a bad contract. He's got 2 rings.

8) Mattias Ohlund, Tampa 2009/10: I'm not sure it ever made sense to give a 33 year old defenseman in decline a 7 year contract for $25M. Tampa got lucky that Ohlund was not healthy for most of the contract, allowing them to hide it on long term IR. He hasn't played since 2011 but the contract only just expired in 2016. He did play over 100 games for the Lightning, but was never again the player that he was in Vancouver.

9) Viktor Stalberg, Nashville 2013/14: This was a relatively small contract at 4 years $12M, but the production decline was substantial. In the first year his production dropped almost in half. He only played out half the contract before being bought out, but he went on to find new NHL employment for over $1 million dollars annually. His agent has earned his commission.

10) Matt Stajan, Calgary 2010/11: He scored 19 goals and 57 PTS in 2010, and 6 G,  31 PTS in 2011 after signing a 4 year $14M contract. He survived getting bought out, but never again came close to the production that earned him this deal. It should be noted that Calgary played exactly zero playoff games for the duration of this contract.

Honorable mentions: Alex Edler 2014, Colin Wilson 2016, Martin Havlat 2010, Jochen Hecht 2009, Mike Grabner 2012


Thursday, July 14, 2016

NHL 5th+ Round Draft Pick Probabilities and Expected Value

What is the expected value of a fifth round pick (and above) in the NHL draft (specifically picks above 120)? Answers below.


ABOUT THE DATA

The 2016 NHL Draft Study is basically spreadsheet of nearly every NHL draft pick from 2004 - 2013 (goalies and players older than 21 on draft day not included), almost 2000 players total. The data includes production, games played at every level/age, and salary earned between age 18 and 25. The entire sample has only played in the NHL under a salary cap. Statistics from the 2015/16 season have yet to be added. For more information about the data, click here.

Age: In this study, age refers to how old the player is on Sept 15th of any given season, since that's the draft cut off. It means that the "18 year old season" is the season after the first year of draft eligibility regardless of what month the player was born.

Statistical Career Milestone Probabilities

Below are 3 charts to determine the probability that a player reaches any given career milestone for NHL GP, NHL PTS, and AHL GP by any given age. The chart at the bottom is for Expected GP and PTS.

Important Notes:

*It is intended as a cumulative probability, but because of the nature of this time-series analysis, doesn't always behave that way.

Analysis:

*There is a significantly large decline in expectations for draft picks after the 4th round.

PROBABILITY OF NHL GP MILESTONES
AGE
0
1
10
100
300
18
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
x
x
19
99.2%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
x
20
95.8%
4.2%
2.3%
0.0%
x
21
89.2%
10.8%
7.0%
0.7%
0.0%
22
81.9%
18.1%
11.7%
2.4%
0.0%
23
77.4%
22.6%
15.9%
5.0%
0.0%
24
73.2%
26.8%
20.0%
8.8%
0.6%
25
73.4%
26.6%
21.9%
11.0%
2.2%







PROBABILITY OF NHL PTS MILESTONES
AGE
0
1
10
100
300
18
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
x
19
99.5%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
x
20
97.1%
2.9%
1.2%
0.0%
x
21
92.3%
7.7%
2.6%
0.0%
0.0%
22
86.4%
13.6%
6.2%
0.3%
0.0%
23
81.9%
18.1%
9.5%
1.0%
0.0%
24
77.0%
23.0%
11.8%
0.9%
0.0%
25
75.6%
24.4%
14.3%
2.5%
0.2%







PROBABILITY OF AHL GP MILESTONES
AGE
0
1
10
100
300
18
96.9%
3.1%
0.1%
0.0%
x
19
91.1%
8.9%
3.5%
0.0%
x
20
72.1%
27.9%
21.8%
1.3%
x
21
58.0%
42.0%
33.9%
12.9%
x
22
47.1%
52.9%
45.3%
20.2%
0.0%
23
37.5%
62.5%
55.6%
27.6%
0.5%
24
35.6%
64.4%
59.0%
33.1%
3.2%
25
36.2%
63.8%
59.5%
36.0%
5.1%



STATS/PICKS

NHL
NHL
AHL
AHL
AGE
GP
PTS
GP
PTS
18
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
19
0.1
0.0
1.5
0.5
20
0.9
0.3
11.3
4.2
21
2.2
0.6
16.2
6.5
22
4.2
1.4
18.2
7.8
23
5.9
2.0
17.5
7.2
24
7.6
2.4
13.8
5.6
25
8.3
3.0
8.6
3.6
Sum
29.1
9.8
87.2
35.4


Salary and Expected Value

The Salary and Expected Value charts below provide some interesting information. The 18 year season is not included in the expected value calculation because only a tiny proportion of the population of draft picks are ready to jump immediately to the NHL, and there is very little variation in the salaries of those that do.

Then there is the ability to determine what proportion of the sample is earning what salary at any given age.  $0 players are those who play zero regular season games in the AHL or NHL (some players with season long injuries still register a cap number, like E.Johnson). It's important to note that these are not career earnings below, but rather for that specific age.

Salary: Refers to NHL salary cap hit as listed at NHL Numbers.com, plus up to $50,000 per AHL season.

Expected Value
: This is the amount a player earned in salary minus the expected salary of a player drafted in that position, at each age.

Important Notes:

*Salary/Pro: This variable is calculated by total amount of salary divided by the number of players who have turned pro (AHL or NHL).

*The sum at the bottom of SALARY INFO chart, the salary from age 18 is not included.

Analysis:

* There's about a 6% chance of getting a million dollar player at age 25


SALARY INFO

% of players earning this salary range
AGE
Salary/Pro
$0
< $1M
> $ 1M
> $4M
18
$7,330
96.9%
3.1%
0.0%
0.0%
19
$56,600
92.5%
7.5%
0.0%
0.0%
20
$33,125
73.8%
26.2%
0.0%
0.0%
21
$64,523
60.4%
39.4%
0.1%
0.0%
22
$83,746
53.4%
46.3%
0.3%
0.0%
23
$125,834
52.6%
45.4%
2.0%
0.2%
24
$147,595
60.3%
35.8%
3.9%
0.2%
25
$176,330
68.5%
25.5%
6.0%
0.2%
sum
$687,753











SALARY AND EXPECTED VALUE
AGE
Salary-E[V]
E[V]
Sum(E{V])
Salary/GP
Salary/PTS
19
$5,023
$51,577
$51,577
$33,654
$226,400
20
$93
$33,032
$84,610
$21,055
$63,776
21
$647
$63,876
$148,486
$18,357
$62,390
22
$1,204
$82,542
$231,028
$14,741
$42,993
23
$80
$125,754
$356,782
$19,754
$59,128
24
-$0
$147,595
$504,376
$19,286
$59,805
25
$0
$176,330
$680,706
$21,194
$59,441
Sum
$7,047

Development Matrix

If you would like to see how a sample of draft picks advances through different leagues and skill levels, welcome to the Development Matrix (or more correctly, matrices). If a draft pick played at least 1 game at any level last year, where is he likely to go next year?

Important Notes:

* KHL = Russian Elite, EurMA  = Euro Mainland Elite (Czeck, Slovakia, Germany, Swiss), ScanA = Scandinavian Elite (Sweden and Finland), EurB = All of the 2nd tier European leagues, EurJr = All European junior leagues,  CHL = Canadian Major Junior, WJC = Under 20 World Junior Championship, Tier II = All North American amateur that doesn't ruin NCAA eligibility, USDP = United States Development Program

* Age 17 is the first year of NHL draft eligibility.

* Charts meant to be read left to right, not up and down.

* Do not sum the numbers in any direction. It is what percentage of the sample played at least 1 game at any level and many play at more than one level.

Analysis:

* Almost 10% of players who played tier II junior in their draft year transitioned to major junior instead of continuing on NCAA path.

%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
AGE 18
 
Sample
at Age 17
CHL
NCAA
AHL
NHL
1.5%
KHL
15.4%
0.0%
7.7%
0.0%
3.3%
EurMA
51.7%
0.0%
6.9%
0.0%
3.2%
ScanA
14.3%
0.0%
3.6%
0.0%
9.5%
EurB
15.5%
1.2%
1.2%
0.0%
0.6%
NCAA
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
36.3%
CHL
98.7%
0.0%
7.2%
0.0%
1.9%
WJC
41.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
18.6%
Eurjr
25.6%
0.0%
1.8%
0.0%
31.3%
Tier II
9.8%
27.3%
0.0%
0.0%
4.7%
USDP
2.4%
85.4%
0.0%
0.0%






%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
AGE 19
 
Sample
at Age 18
CHL
NCAA
AHL
NHL
0.0%
NHL
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.1%
AHL
81.5%
0.0%
51.9%
3.7%
3.3%
KHL
0.0%
0.0%
6.9%
3.4%
1.6%
EurMA
35.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.5%
ScanA
4.5%
0.0%
4.5%
1.5%
9.8%
EurB
9.3%
1.2%
4.7%
0.0%
12.7%
NCAA
7.1%
92.9%
2.7%
0.0%
43.1%
CHL
91.6%
0.0%
14.0%
1.3%
9.9%
WJC
24.1%
8.0%
13.8%
1.1%
12.8%
Eurjr
13.3%
2.7%
3.5%
0.9%
24.1%
Tier II
5.7%
70.3%
0.9%
0.0%






%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
AGE 20
 
Sample
at Age 19
CHL
NCAA
AHL
NHL
0.8%
NHL
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
71.4%
7.4%
AHL
12.7%
0.0%
81.0%
12.7%
1.1%
ECHL
10.0%
0.0%
50.0%
0.0%
3.8%
KHL
0.0%
0.0%
3.1%
0.0%
2.2%
EurMA
0.0%
0.0%
11.8%
5.9%
8.3%
ScanA
0.0%
1.5%
16.4%
7.5%
8.9%
EurB
0.0%
0.0%
7.0%
1.4%
30.0%
NCAA
2.4%
94.7%
5.3%
0.0%
43.0%
CHL
42.1%
0.0%
46.5%
5.8%
15.1%
WJC
6.4%
12.8%
28.8%
9.6%
8.4%
Eurjr
0.0%
2.9%
11.6%
4.3%
7.4%
Tier II
1.6%
77.8%
3.2%
0.0%


 


 
%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
Age 21
 
Sample
at Age 20
NCAA
ECHL
AHL
NHL
4.0%
NHL
0.0%
3.1%
84.4%
87.5%
26.0%
AHL
0.0%
22.2%
90.9%
31.8%
9.4%
ECHL
0.0%
42.3%
71.8%
7.0%
4.0%
KHL
0.0%
6.9%
17.2%
3.4%
3.9%
EurMA
0.0%
3.2%
9.7%
0.0%
8.5%
ScanA
0.0%
7.8%
23.4%
6.3%
10.3%
EurB
0.0%
6.6%
13.2%
0.0%
34.1%
NCAA
89.5%
4.7%
18.4%
2.0%
18.7%
CHL
0.0%
41.7%
45.8%
4.2%
3.4%
Eurjr
0.0%
11.1%
18.5%
0.0%
1.9%
Tier II
43.8%
12.5%
6.3%
0.0%






%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
Age 22
 
Sample
at Age 21
NCAA
ECHL
AHL
NHL
10.2%
NHL
0.0%
2.9%
71.4%
81.4%
38.5%
AHL
0.0%
24.5%
81.0%
32.8%
15.3%
ECHL
0.0%
54.9%
59.8%
2.9%
3.3%
KHL
0.0%
0.0%
12.5%
8.3%
4.2%
EurMA
0.0%
0.0%
10.3%
0.0%
7.3%
ScanA
0.0%
0.0%
7.7%
7.7%
7.4%
EurB
0.0%
0.0%
3.8%
1.9%
31.7%
NCAA
63.6%
14.7%
39.6%
9.7%






%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
Age 23
 
Sample
at Age 22
NCAA
ECHL
AHL
NHL
15.6%
NHL
0.0%
1.1%
56.0%
79.1%
43.4%
AHL
0.0%
24.7%
72.5%
30.6%
16.5%
ECHL
0.0%
57.0%
46.0%
0.0%
3.7%
KHL
0.0%
0.0%
13.0%
13.0%
4.9%
EurMA
0.0%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
7.4%
ScanA
0.0%
0.0%
14.9%
6.4%
8.8%
EurB
0.0%
3.6%
1.8%
0.0%
20.6%
NCAA
24.2%
39.5%
57.3%
7.3%






%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
Age 24
 
Sample
at Age 23
KHL
ECHL
AHL
NHL
17.9%
NHL
5.4%
1.1%
44.1%
79.6%
42.0%
AHL
3.2%
24.0%
63.3%
32.1%
20.8%
ECHL
0.0%
50.0%
40.9%
0.0%
5.4%
KHL
75.0%
0.0%
10.7%
7.1%
5.0%
EurMA
3.4%
0.0%
6.9%
6.9%
6.2%
ScanA
5.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
9.4%
EurB
3.7%
11.1%
3.7%
1.9%
5.0%
NCAA
0.0%
35.7%
50.0%
7.1%