Thursday, October 16, 2014

NHL Week 1 Fantasy Hockey Report 2014/15


After a long, hot, boring summer, hockey is back! My analysis is based largely on Yahoo and ESPN Standard Leagues where your roster of players competes head to head in several categories (in my league it is G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, Shots, Hits, Blocks, Faceoff Wins) against another roster of players. I look at ownership percentages and determine which players are owned too much, and which are not owned enough.
To View my week 1 Player rankings (on which most of my analysis is based) click here.


Who you should buy! (players who need to be owned in more leagues)

(Percentages below are ownership rates in Yahoo and ESPN fantasy hockey leagues)


Tommy Wingels, SJ –(13% ESPN, 18% Yahoo)  He should have been owned in every league last season, and he continues to be a must own player. He gets loads of quality ice with gifted offensive players. He has 3 Gs, 4 PTS in the first 3 GP.

 

Ryan Strome, NYI – (57% ESPN, 5% Yahoo)  Needs to be owned in more leagues, arguably all leagues, 10 teams and up. He is a blue chip prospect that looks to have found a permanent spot in the NHL, with 4 PTS in the first 3 GP.

 

Tanner Pearson, LA(8% ESPN, 32% Yahoo)  6 PTS in 4 GPs is a pace that he is unlikely to maintain, but in the near term he is definitely a must add in all leagues.  In shallower leagues, ride the hot streak and drop if he goes cold.

 

Filip Forsberg, Nsh – (86% ESPN, 20% Yahoo)  Should be owned in all leagues, 10 team and up. It looks like the youngster is finally here to stay after World Junior stardom. He has 4 PTS in 3 GP.

 

Tyler Toffoli, LA – (59% ESPN, 35% Yahoo)  Toffoli and Pearson are forming a very productive dynamic duo early in the season. Toffoli should be owned in all leagues, 10 teams and up. He already has 5 PTS in 4 GP.

 

Matt Belesky, Ana(1% ESPN, 4% Yahoo)  3 goals in 4 GPs is pretty good, but the most interesting part is how much ice time he is getting with Perry and Getzlaf. Ownership way too low, but he may just be a temporary play in standard leagues.

 

Craig Smith, Nsh – (14% ESPN, 24% Yahoo)  3 PTS in 3 GP for a 25 year old player who scored 52 PTS last season. He is a very underrated player who needs to be owned in more leagues.

 

Michael Ryder, NJ – (3% ESPN, 9% Yahoo)  At this point everybody has owned Ryder in a fantasy league at some point, and he’s just not exciting to own anymore. But he is clicking in Jersey and still putting up PTS. Until he stops scoring, you should consider adding him.

 

Matt Nieto, SJ(1% ESPN, 3% Yahoo)  He is on pace for 82 PTS, a target he is unlikely to reach, but he’s getting points on a talented Sharks roster. Worth keeping an eye on at the very least.

 

Leo Komarov, Tor(1% ESPN, 2% Yahoo)  If your league counts hits, he is a must own. In 10 team leagues or straight-up points leagues, he is more of a speculative play. He has 3 Assists in 4 GP.

                                                           

 

Who is off to a slow start? (these players are owned in many leagues and off to a slow start.  Worthy of drop or trade consideration.)


Mats Zuccarello, NYR – (88% ESPN, 55% Yahoo)  I wouldn’t drop Zuccarello, but I might dangle his name in trade offers. Through 3 games, he has no PTS and is a -5.

 

Aleks Barkov, FLA – (89% ESPN, 13% Yahoo)  Barkov has yet to earn that level of ownership. He has a lot of potential, but at this point I’d like to see it before I believe it.

 

Matt Niskanen, Wsh – (100% ESPN, 95% Yahoo)  It might have been predictable that Niskanen would decline outside of the high powered Penguins offense. He is not the player he was last season.

 

James Neal, Nsh – (100% ESPN, 98% Yahoo)  It might have been predictable that Neal would decline outside of the high powered Penguins offense. He is not the player he was last season.

 

Dougie Hamilton, Bos – (97% ESPN, 58% Yahoo)  It may be too early to be concerned about Hamilton, but he hasn’t made any offensive contribution in this young season. He’s borderline droppable in shallow leagues. I’d much rather have Boychuck.

 

Jason Spezza, Dal – (100% ESPN, 96% Yahoo) In 3 GP, he has 1 point and is a -3. For a team that was supposed to be an offensive powerhouse, Spezza is struggling to find his rythym. Not yet droppable.

 

Bobby Ryan, Ott – (100% ESPN, 93% Yahoo)  He’s off to a bad start in Ottawa. Not somebody you’ll want to drop, but I would be shopping his name in trade offers  if I owned him (which I don’t).

 

Milan Lucic, Bos – (100% ESPN, 91% Yahoo)  No PTS in 5 GP is a minor cause for concern, but once Krejci gets back to full speed, he should be alright. He may be worth targeting in a trade deal if his owner is worried. Not yet droppable, but tradeable.

 

Matt Moulson, Buf – (91% ESPN, 64% Yahoo)  I’m not as concerned about Moulson’s 1 point in 4 GP, but I am kind of concerned about the train wreck that is the Buffalo Sabres.

 

Brad Marchand, Bos – (98% ESPN, 79% Yahoo)  He’s not someone you will want to drop, but he is a buy low candidate or somebody to sell if you can find a buyer willing to pay face value.

 

Thursday, October 2, 2014

NHL Scoring Forecast 2014/15

Here are my annual NHL scoring predictions for the 2014/15 season. May they help you win your hockey pool or fantasy league.


Rank Player TEAMPOSE[GP]E[Pts]
1  Sidney Crosby Pit F 73 98
2  Evgeni Malkin Pit F 72 89
3  John Tavares NYI F 77 88
4  Phil Kessel Tor F 80 88
5  Steven Stamkos TB F 75 86
6  Nicklas Backstrom Was F 80 86
7  Jamie Benn Dal F 80 85
8  Tyler Seguin Dal F 75 82
9  Ryan Getzlaf Ana F 73 82
10  Taylor Hall Edm F 75 81
11  Alex Ovechkin Was F 73 80
12  Claude Giroux Phi F 75 79
13  Corey Perry Ana F 80 79
14  Matt Duchene Col F 74 75
15  Blake Wheeler Wpg F 80 75
16  Patrick Kane Chi F 72 75
17  Joe Pavelski SJ F 80 75
18  Patrick Sharp Chi F 80 75
19  Erik Karlsson Ott D 80 73
20  Kyle Okposo NYI F 73 73
21  David Krejci Bos F 77 73
22  Joe Thornton SJ F 80 73
23  Logan Couture SJ F 76 72
24  Jonathan Toews Chi F 77 72
25  Max Pacioretty Mtl F 75 72
26  Bryan Little Wpg F 80 71
27  Thomas Vanek Min F 73 70
28  Henrik Zetterberg Det F 75 70
29  Anze Kopitar LA F 80 69
30  Gustav Nyquist Det F 75 68
31  Jason Spezza Dal F 70 68
32  James van Riemsdyk Tor F 77 67
33  Ryan O'Reilly Col F 78 66
34  Tyler Bozak Tor F 70 66
35  Zach Parise Min F 75 66
36  Jakub Voracek Phi F 80 66
37  Jeff Skinner Car F 73 66
38  Martin St. Louis NYR F 80 66
39  Patrick Marleau SJ F 80 65
40  Nathan MacKinnon Col F 80 65
41  Milan Lucic Bos F 77 65
42  Gabriel Landeskog Col F 75 65
43  Kyle Turris Ott F 80 65
44  Chris Kunitz Pit F 75 64
45  Jordan Eberle Edm F 75 64
46  David Perron Edm F 75 64
47  James Neal Nas F 74 64
48  Marian Hossa Chi F 75 63
49  Jaromir Jagr NJ F 80 62
50  Ryan Johansen Cob F 80 62
51  Evander Kane Wpg F 75 62
52  Henrik Sedin Van F 75 62
53  Patric Hornqvist Pit F 73 62
54  Alexander Steen Stl F 73 62
55  T.J. Oshie Stl F 77 61
56  Craig Smith Nas F 75 61
57  Wayne Simmonds Phi F 80 61
58  Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Edm F 75 60
59  Ondrej Palat TB F 80 60
60  Mats Zuccarello NYR F 75 60
61  David Backes Stl F 73 60
62  Patrice Bergeron Bos F 80 59
63  Mikko Koivu Min F 73 59
64  Mikkel Boedker Pho F 80 59
65  Jarome Iginla Col F 75 58
66  Pavel Datsyuk Det F 64 58
67  David Desharnais Mtl F 75 58
68  Radim Vrbata Van F 75 58
69  Brad Marchand Bos F 80 58
70  Paul Stastny Stl F 70 58
71  Bobby Ryan Ott F 73 57
72  Dustin Byfuglien Wpg D 77 57
73  Duncan Keith Chi D 79 57
74  Brad Richards Chi F 80 57
75  Vladimir Tarasenko Stl F 72 57
76  Daniel Sedin Van F 75 56
77  P.K. Subban Mtl D 80 56
78  Jaden Schwartz Stl F 75 56
79  Valtteri Filppula TB F 75 56
80  Shea Weber Nas D 77 55
81  Eric Staal Car F 75 55
82  Jason Pominville Min F 80 55
83  Victor Hedman TB D 75 54
84  Alexander Semin Car F 74 54
85  Martin Hanzal Pho F 75 54
86  Reilly Smith Bos F 80 53
87  Derick Brassard NYR F 80 53
88  Jiri Hudler Cgy F 72 52
89  Brandon Dubinsky Cob F 75 52
90  Keith Yandle Pho D 80 52
91  Evgeny Kuznetsov Was F 80 52
92  Alex Pietrangelo Stl D 80 52
93  Clarke MacArthur Ott F 75 52
94  Jiri Tlusty Car F 76 52
95  Mike Ribeiro Nas F 72 52
96  Nazem Kadri Tor F 75 52
97  Mark Giordano Cgy D 76 51
98  Tyler Johnson TB F 80 51
99  Frans Nielsen NYI F 75 50
100  Patrik Elias NJ F 63 50
101  Scott Hartnell Cob F 73 50
102  Jussi Jokinen Fla F 75 50
103  Andrew Ladd Wpg F 75 50
104  Johan Franzen Det F 65 49
105  Adam Henrique NJ F 75 49
106  David Legwand Ott F 80 49
107  Alex Killorn TB F 80 49
108  Andrew Cogliano Ana F 80 49
109  Tyler Ennis Buf F 75 48
110  James Wisniewski Cob D 73 48
111  Mathieu Perreault Wpg F 67 48
112  Matt Read Phi F 75 48
113  Brandon Saad Chi F 76 48
114  Michael Cammalleri NJ F 70 48
115  Marian Gaborik LA F 67 47
116  Brent Burns SJ D 70 47
117  Mark Scheifele Wpg F 70 47
118  Rick Nash NYR F 70 47
119  Cody Hodgson Buf F 72 47
120  Shane Doan Pho F 72 47
121  Niklas Kronwall Det D 77 47
122  Jeff Carter LA F 72 46
123  Sam Gagner Pho F 70 46
124  Nick Bonino Van F 75 46
125  Mikael Granlund Min F 68 46
126  Mikael Backlund Cgy F 75 46
127  Cam Atkinson Cob F 75 46
128  Ryan Kesler Ana F 73 45
129  P.A. Parenteau Mtl F 65 45
130  Oliver Ekman-Larsson Pho D 78 45
131 Linden Vey Van F 75 45
132  Tommy Wingels SJ F 73 45
133  Tomas Hertl SJ F 70 45
134  Alex Chiasson Ott F 75 45
135  Alex Galchenyuk Mtl F 72 45
136  Matt Moulson Buf F 75 44
137  Alex Tanguay Col F 60 44
138  Chris Kreider NYR F 75 44
139  Artem Anisimov Cob F 75 44
140  Curtis Glencross Cgy F 70 44
141  Carl Soderberg Bos F 70 44
142  Joffrey Lupul Tor F 66 44
143  Brayden Schenn Phi F 80 44
144  Derek Stepan NYR F 60 44
145  Kevin Shattenkirk Stl D 80 44
146  Kris Versteeg Chi F 77 43
147  Joel Ward Was F 80 43
148  Antoine Vermette Pho F 80 43
149  Tomas Tatar Det F 70 43
150  Marcus Johansson Was F 75 43
151  Mikhail Grabovski NYI F 70 42
152  Nick Bjugstad Fla F 75 42
153  Nick Foligno Cob F 71 42
154  Benoit Pouliot Edm F 77 42
155  Ales Hemsky Dal F 70 42
156  Matt Niskanen Was D 80 42
157  Nino Niederreiter Min F 80 42
158  Josh Bailey NYI F 73 42
159  Carl Hagelin NYR F 73 42
160  Ryan McDonagh NYR D 77 42
161  Brendan Gallagher Mtl F 75 42
162  Travis Zajac NJ F 75 42
163  Ryan Suter Min D 80 41
164  Aleksander Barkov Fla F 74 41
165  Loui Eriksson Bos F 72 41
166  Kris Letang Pit D 70 41
167  Ryan Strome NYI F 57 41
168  Valeri Nichushkin Dal F 75 41
169  Teddy Purcell Edm F 80 40
170  Charlie Coyle Min F 70 40
171  Andrej Sekera Car D 75 40
172  Brent Seabrook Chi D 80 40
173  Michael Frolik Wpg F 80 40
174  Sean Couturier Phi F 80 40
175  Riley Sheahan Det F 70 40
176  Olli Jokinen Nas F 80 40
177  Torey Krug Bos D 78 39
178  Nathan Gerbe Car F 80 39
179  Troy Brouwer Was F 80 39
180  Tomas Plekanec Mtl F 75 39
181  Tyson Barrie Col D 67 39
182  Patrik Berglund Stl F 75 39
183  Zack Kassian Van F 75 39
184  Alex Goligoski Dal D 77 39
185  Filip Forsberg Nas F 75 39
186  Ryan Callahan TB F 70 39
187  Daniel Briere Col F 70 38
188  Justin Faulk Car D 75 38
189  Andrei Markov Mtl D 73 38
190  Colin Wilson Nas F 77 38
191  Andrew Shaw Chi F 75 38
192  Justin Williams LA F 80 38
193  Tyler Toffoli LA F 73 38
194  Zdeno Chara Bos D 77 38
195  Marek Zidlicky NJ D 77 38
196  Mark Streit Phi D 80 38
197  Nick Spaling Pit F 72 38
198  Mike Santorelli Tor F 70 38
199  Roman Josi Nas D 69 37
200  Lars Eller Mtl F 75 37
201  Dougie Hamilton Bos D 75 37
202  Lauri Korpikoski Pho F 73 37
203  Mark Stone Ott F 65 37
204  Mike Green Was D 71 37
205  Cam Fowler Ana D 68 37
206  John Carlson Was D 80 37
207  Jacob Trouba Wpg D 75 37
208  Jamie McGinn Col F 75 37
209  Chris Higgins Van F 77 37
210  Erik Johnson Col D 77 37
211  Nail Yakupov Edm F 71 37
212  Damien Brunner NJ F 70 36
213  Mark Letestu Cob F 80 36
214  Antoine Roussel Dal F 77 36
215  Matt Beleskey Ana F 72 36
216  Ryane Clowe NJ F 69 36
217  Jason Chimera Was F 80 36
218  Jay Bouwmeester Stl D 80 36
219  Jakob Silfverberg Ana F 75 36
220  Cody Eakin Dal F 75 36
221  Drew Doughty LA D 78 36
222  Calle Jarnkrok Nas F 60 35
223  Michael Grabner NYI F 70 35
224  Eric Gelinas NJ D 72 35
225  Jason Garrison TB D 80 35
226  Nikita Kucherov TB F 70 35
227  Matt Stajan Cgy F 72 35
228  Patrick Maroon Ana F 65 35
229  Derek Roy Nas F 73 35
230  Mika Zibanejad Ott F 70 35
231  Colton Sceviour Dal F 60 35
232  Jordan Staal Car F 65 35
233  Mason Raymond Cgy F 80 35
234  Vincent Lecavalier Phi F 65 34
235  Brandon Sutter Pit F 80 34
236  Milan Michalek Ott F 74 34
237  Scottie Upshall Fla F 73 34
238  Boone Jenner Cob F 70 34
239  Dave Bolland Fla F 65 34
240  Marcus Foligno Buf F 71 34
241  Justin Schultz Edm D 75 34
242  Kyle Palmieri Ana F 70 34
243  Brock Nelson NYI F 70 34
244  Sean Monahan Cgy F 71 34
245  Brian Campbell Fla D 80 33
246  Tomas Jurco Det F 70 33
247  Matt Cullen Nas F 73 33
248  Drew Stafford Buf F 72 33
249  Dan Boyle NYR D 75 33
250  Pascal Dupuis Pit F 68 33
251  Dennis Wideman Cgy D 75 33
252  Beau Bennett Pit F 70 33
253  Paul Byron Cgy F 60 33
254  Justin Abdelkader Det F 67 33
255  Matt Calvert Cob F 63 32
256  Devin Setoguchi Cgy F 70 32
257  Steve Downie Pit F 65 32
258  Brandon Pirri Fla F 62 32
259  Nick Leddy Chi D 80 32
260  Tyler Myers Buf D 72 32
261  Nick Holden Col D 70 32
262  Mark Arcobello Edm F 59 32
263  Cody Franson Tor D 77 32
264  Christian Ehrhoff Pit D 77 32
265  Anders Lee NYI F 52 31
266  R.J. Umberger Phi F 73 31
267  Jason Demers SJ D 71 31
268  Brad Boyes Fla F 75 31
269  Mike Richards LA F 80 31
270  Michael Ryder NJ F 80 31
271  Jonathan Huberdeau Fla F 69 31
272  Alexander Edler Van D 70 31
273  T.J. Brodie Cgy D 80 31
274  Slava Voynov LA D 80 31
275  Andy Greene NJ D 80 31
276  Marcus Kruger Chi F 80 31
277  Jeremy Morin Chi F 67 31
278  Kris Russell Cgy D 74 31
279  Morgan Rielly Tor D 70 30
280  Andrej Meszaros Buf D 72 30
281  Zack Smith Ott F 80 30
282  Jake Gardiner Tor D 80 30
283  Alexandre Burrows Van F 71 30
284  Jack Johnson Cob D 80 30
285  Olli Maatta Pit D 76 30
286  Matthew Carle TB D 80 30
287  Stephen Weiss Det F 70 30
288  Mike Fisher Nas F 50 30
289  Sven Baertschi Cgy F 65 29
290  John Mitchell Col F 73 29
291  Riley Nash Car F 68 29
292  Dion Phaneuf Tor D 77 29
293  Andrew MacDonald Phi D 80 29
294  Nathan Horton Cob F 60 29
295  Michael Raffl Phi F 67 29
296  Hampus Lindholm Ana D 76 29
297  Brian Gibbons Cob F 58 29
298  Cory Conacher NYI F 75 29
299  Joe Colborne Cgy F 75 29
300  Mikhail Grigorenko Buf F 70 28