I'm going to make a prediction for how the 2011 NBA lockout will end. The NBA already has plans to play a half season, and have likely set that as their intended target. They are up against a very weak union that does not prepare itself financially like the hockey players. Many NBA players live paycheque to paycheque despite million dollar salaries, and they will fold before the season is cancelled. If Stern can drag this out for another 6 weeks, he will set a hard deadline in late December or he'll cancel the season, and the union will cave to his demands. It will work and he knows it. The NBA season should start sometime in January. How do I know this? They've done it before, it worked before, and it will work again.
Bank on it. As a hockey fan who doesn't much care for basketball, I'd kinda like to see them lose the whole season. That way hockey highlights aren't competing with basketball every night on Sportscenter. Call me selfish, but I enjoy greater focus on hockey.
A blog focusing mostly on fantasy hockey, player contracts, and NHL betting. My site has moved to Substack (click here to subscribe for free). I'll continue posting some stuff here, just to keep my old Slatekeeper site alive. This site was founded back in November 2010.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Terrell Owens Holds Topless Workout, Nobody Shows Up
Today NFL wide receiver Terrell Owens held a topless workout session and invited every NFL team to attend, but none accepted his invitation. There may or may not have been CFL and Arena League officials in attendance. If you really want a job and you have an impressive physique, take your shirt off. Somebody has to sign T.O for the biceps alone. That's pretty incredible muscle definition for a 37 year old who has been crippled for several months. Either he is a genetic freak, or I want to take what he's taking. There had to be topless sit ups involved, though they showed topless catches on Sportscenter. When you watch him running his routes, his pecs are starting to sag and bounce a lot, so maybe he is officially getting old...
Somebody will sign him, it just might not be in the NFL.
Somebody will sign him, it just might not be in the NFL.
Monday, October 24, 2011
NHL October Power Rankings
The NHL season is nearly 2 weeks old, and here are my rankings for the new season. For these rankings, the order is based on a score of points per game and goal differential for each team. I decided to base my first rankings entirely on this measurement and not factoring in information not reflected in the teams record or goal differential. Now that I have a benchmark from which to start, my future rankings will be more subjective.
1. Washington (last April rank #2): Tomas Vokoun and Nick Backstrom are carrying this team through their early season winning streak. Ovechkin is getting back on pace and they are getting production from their blueline.
2. Los Angeles (last April rank #11): Jon be nimble Jon be quick! Three straight shutouts for Jon Quick and suddenly LA is a very tough team to beat. This will be difficult to sustain if Drew Doughty remains injured for any significant period of time.
3. Detroit (last April rank #4): It will be interesting to see how this team performs should Lidstrom ever decide to retire. As a Wings fan, I'd like to see him play until age 50. He's like a fine wine, he ages very well.
4. Pittsburgh (last April rank #9): Jordan Staal is a beast. Team continues to perform well without Crosby.
5. Colorado (last April rank #29): By far the biggest surprise of the new season, as this team was absolutely atrocious in the 2nd half of last season. Add Semyon Varlamov, and suddenly they don't suck so bad.
6. Buffalo (last April rank #15): This team did a good job of strengthening their roster in the offseason. I said at the time that Vancouver's offense would very much miss Ehrhoff's presence on the blueline. Thomas Vanek has his mojo back.
7. Chicago (last April rank #8): This will be a top 10 team for at least the next five years. Toews, Kane, and Keith is a great foundation on which to build a franchise.
8. Dallas (last April rank #17): Kari Lehtonen is a beast and easily the biggest reason that Dallas is off to this fast start. Hopefully he can finally stay healthy.
9. Philadelphia (last April rank #5): They added Bryzgalov, but shipped out Carter and Richards. By all accounts they should not be a better team this season, despite more solid goaltending.
10. Toronto (last April rank #20): The Leafs are once again out of the gate as a top ten team and Phil Kessel is leading the league in scoring. We'll see if it lasts.
11. Florida (last April rank #28): This team improved themselves in the offseason, but this roster is not good enough to win a playoff series with Jose Theodore between the pipes.
12. Edmonton (last April rank #30): It is unlikely this team will maintain this ranking, only earning this spot by virtue of mathematics. I expect them to be good eventually with the quality youth on their roster, but I did not expect this year to be a strong season for the Oilers.
13. NY Rangers (last April rank #18): If you've seen Tortorella lately, you'd expect the Rangers to be worse than their 7th rank in the East. John tells me that their team is playing terribly, despite their record being better than average. This team is going to struggle so long as Marc Staal is out of the line-up, and emotional outbursts by the coach can't fill the void on their blueline.
14. San Jose (last April rank #3): Heatley and Setoguchi are gone, Burns and Havlat have replaced them. It is difficult to determine how much better or worse the team is, but Niemi missing the start of the season did not help. Now their #1 goaltender is back which will help the team. They will make the playoffs and be competitive.
15. Anaheim (last April rank #10): Not a mighty start for the Ducks, but it looks like Getzlaf and Perry are starting to produce. Since I own both on my fantasy team, I'll be rooting for them.
16. Vancouver (last April rank #1): This team should climb the charts now that Kesler has returned. Once he gets back into game shape and hits full stride, things will improve. Fortunes might rest on the relationship between Roberto Luongo and the Vancouver fans.
17. Minnesota (last April rank #18): Not much has changed. It seems like they will always be a middle of the road team, never good enough for success or bad enough to get to draft picks.
18. NY Islanders (last April rank #26): John Tavares is now officially a superstar. This team has a decent shot at a playoff spot if their goaltending holds together.
19. New Jersey (last April rank #24): The Devils were one of the league's hottest teams to end last season, and now with Parise back they should be better. Brodeur's injury will cost them some points.
20. Tampa Bay (last April rank #7): A rough start to the season in Tampa. Tough to say if this is a playoff hangover or if the team has structurally regressed. Can they overcome the loss of Sean Bergenheim?
21. St. Louis (last April rank #23): I expect more from this team with an excellent core of quality young players. If Jason Arnott is leading your team in scoring, something is not right.
22. Phoenix (last April rank #14): Losing Bryzgalov should cost this team at least 20 points this season. Mike Smith is not an adequate replacement, and this mediocre roster needs an elite goaltender to be a playoff team.
23. Boston (last April rank #6): This team has to get better because their talent is greater than their record. However playing until the end of June and partying all summer can have a negative effect on the start of your new season.
24. Carolina (last April rank #19): I expected this team to be better, just as I now expect them to get better. They have a .500 record, but a poor goal differential.
25. Nashville (last April rank #12): David Legwand was unable to sustain his share of the NHL scoring lead. Like Montreal this team does not look good out of the gate and are giving up too many goals. We knew the offense would be anemic, but with Pekka Rhinne in net they should not have a -5 goal differential.
26. Calgary (last April rank #16): 2nd to last place in the Western conference is a pathetic start for this line-up. The team should be better than this. It remains to be seen how this season will unfold.
27. Ottawa (last April rank #27): They have won 2 in a row after a 1-5 start, and Jason Spezza is putting up points. That being said, I'd still bet against this team making the playoffs.
28. Winnipeg (last April rank #25): Not the start we all wanted to see with Winnipeg returning to the NHL, but the good news is that they sold out their season tickets on 3 year contracts so they have time before mediocrity could severely damage their box office revenue.
29. Montreal (last April rank #13): Things are not looking good in Montreal, but the roster has too much talent to continue at this rate for an extended period. Heed my advice Montreal, there is no problem to which Peter Budaj is the solution.
30. Columbus (last April rank #22): The worst team in the NHL right now should be better with Jeff Carter and James Wisniewski. Oh that's right, Carter has a broken foot and Wisniewski was suspended for the first 8 games. We'll see if they last in the 30 slot.
1. Washington (last April rank #2): Tomas Vokoun and Nick Backstrom are carrying this team through their early season winning streak. Ovechkin is getting back on pace and they are getting production from their blueline.
2. Los Angeles (last April rank #11): Jon be nimble Jon be quick! Three straight shutouts for Jon Quick and suddenly LA is a very tough team to beat. This will be difficult to sustain if Drew Doughty remains injured for any significant period of time.
3. Detroit (last April rank #4): It will be interesting to see how this team performs should Lidstrom ever decide to retire. As a Wings fan, I'd like to see him play until age 50. He's like a fine wine, he ages very well.
4. Pittsburgh (last April rank #9): Jordan Staal is a beast. Team continues to perform well without Crosby.
5. Colorado (last April rank #29): By far the biggest surprise of the new season, as this team was absolutely atrocious in the 2nd half of last season. Add Semyon Varlamov, and suddenly they don't suck so bad.
6. Buffalo (last April rank #15): This team did a good job of strengthening their roster in the offseason. I said at the time that Vancouver's offense would very much miss Ehrhoff's presence on the blueline. Thomas Vanek has his mojo back.
7. Chicago (last April rank #8): This will be a top 10 team for at least the next five years. Toews, Kane, and Keith is a great foundation on which to build a franchise.
8. Dallas (last April rank #17): Kari Lehtonen is a beast and easily the biggest reason that Dallas is off to this fast start. Hopefully he can finally stay healthy.
9. Philadelphia (last April rank #5): They added Bryzgalov, but shipped out Carter and Richards. By all accounts they should not be a better team this season, despite more solid goaltending.
10. Toronto (last April rank #20): The Leafs are once again out of the gate as a top ten team and Phil Kessel is leading the league in scoring. We'll see if it lasts.
11. Florida (last April rank #28): This team improved themselves in the offseason, but this roster is not good enough to win a playoff series with Jose Theodore between the pipes.
12. Edmonton (last April rank #30): It is unlikely this team will maintain this ranking, only earning this spot by virtue of mathematics. I expect them to be good eventually with the quality youth on their roster, but I did not expect this year to be a strong season for the Oilers.
13. NY Rangers (last April rank #18): If you've seen Tortorella lately, you'd expect the Rangers to be worse than their 7th rank in the East. John tells me that their team is playing terribly, despite their record being better than average. This team is going to struggle so long as Marc Staal is out of the line-up, and emotional outbursts by the coach can't fill the void on their blueline.
14. San Jose (last April rank #3): Heatley and Setoguchi are gone, Burns and Havlat have replaced them. It is difficult to determine how much better or worse the team is, but Niemi missing the start of the season did not help. Now their #1 goaltender is back which will help the team. They will make the playoffs and be competitive.
15. Anaheim (last April rank #10): Not a mighty start for the Ducks, but it looks like Getzlaf and Perry are starting to produce. Since I own both on my fantasy team, I'll be rooting for them.
16. Vancouver (last April rank #1): This team should climb the charts now that Kesler has returned. Once he gets back into game shape and hits full stride, things will improve. Fortunes might rest on the relationship between Roberto Luongo and the Vancouver fans.
17. Minnesota (last April rank #18): Not much has changed. It seems like they will always be a middle of the road team, never good enough for success or bad enough to get to draft picks.
18. NY Islanders (last April rank #26): John Tavares is now officially a superstar. This team has a decent shot at a playoff spot if their goaltending holds together.
19. New Jersey (last April rank #24): The Devils were one of the league's hottest teams to end last season, and now with Parise back they should be better. Brodeur's injury will cost them some points.
20. Tampa Bay (last April rank #7): A rough start to the season in Tampa. Tough to say if this is a playoff hangover or if the team has structurally regressed. Can they overcome the loss of Sean Bergenheim?
21. St. Louis (last April rank #23): I expect more from this team with an excellent core of quality young players. If Jason Arnott is leading your team in scoring, something is not right.
22. Phoenix (last April rank #14): Losing Bryzgalov should cost this team at least 20 points this season. Mike Smith is not an adequate replacement, and this mediocre roster needs an elite goaltender to be a playoff team.
23. Boston (last April rank #6): This team has to get better because their talent is greater than their record. However playing until the end of June and partying all summer can have a negative effect on the start of your new season.
24. Carolina (last April rank #19): I expected this team to be better, just as I now expect them to get better. They have a .500 record, but a poor goal differential.
25. Nashville (last April rank #12): David Legwand was unable to sustain his share of the NHL scoring lead. Like Montreal this team does not look good out of the gate and are giving up too many goals. We knew the offense would be anemic, but with Pekka Rhinne in net they should not have a -5 goal differential.
26. Calgary (last April rank #16): 2nd to last place in the Western conference is a pathetic start for this line-up. The team should be better than this. It remains to be seen how this season will unfold.
27. Ottawa (last April rank #27): They have won 2 in a row after a 1-5 start, and Jason Spezza is putting up points. That being said, I'd still bet against this team making the playoffs.
28. Winnipeg (last April rank #25): Not the start we all wanted to see with Winnipeg returning to the NHL, but the good news is that they sold out their season tickets on 3 year contracts so they have time before mediocrity could severely damage their box office revenue.
29. Montreal (last April rank #13): Things are not looking good in Montreal, but the roster has too much talent to continue at this rate for an extended period. Heed my advice Montreal, there is no problem to which Peter Budaj is the solution.
30. Columbus (last April rank #22): The worst team in the NHL right now should be better with Jeff Carter and James Wisniewski. Oh that's right, Carter has a broken foot and Wisniewski was suspended for the first 8 games. We'll see if they last in the 30 slot.
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Canucks Trade Sturm, Samuelsson For Booth, Reinprecht, Draft Pick
The Vancouver Canucks have traded Marco Sturm and Mikael Samuelsson to the Florida Panthers for David Booth, Steve Reinprecht, and a 3rd round draft pick. At first glance I thought that this was a terrible hockey move for Florida, but it makes sense from a financial standpoint. Marco Sturm was on his last legs 2 years ago and last season the Canucks were a better team when Samuelsson was injured. However both are on expiring contracts and sure to attract some attention at the trade deadline. The Canucks get the best player in the deal in Booth who is only 26 and nearing his prime, while also re-acquiring their own 3rd round pick this summer. Reinprecht was a salary dump. The Canucks will eat his salary in the minors.
Florida does not make their team immediately better, and it won't be until the trade deadline that we can fully evaluate who won or lost this deal. I live in Vancouver and get to see a lot of Canucks games on TV; Sturm and Samuelsson just aren't that good anymore. For Florida it was a business move and they clearly hope to flip these assets if there is a feeding frenzy. The Panthers have started the season 4-3, but their roster is not good enough for extended success with Jose Theodore as their best goaltender. If they remain in contention maybe they'll hold on to these guys, but this roster will NOT win a playoff series. I'd put money on that.
Florida does not make their team immediately better, and it won't be until the trade deadline that we can fully evaluate who won or lost this deal. I live in Vancouver and get to see a lot of Canucks games on TV; Sturm and Samuelsson just aren't that good anymore. For Florida it was a business move and they clearly hope to flip these assets if there is a feeding frenzy. The Panthers have started the season 4-3, but their roster is not good enough for extended success with Jose Theodore as their best goaltender. If they remain in contention maybe they'll hold on to these guys, but this roster will NOT win a playoff series. I'd put money on that.
Monday, October 17, 2011
NHL Week 1 Review
The 2010/11 is now 11 days old and so I've compiled a list of 11 observations from this young season. There are some interesting stories emerging, but the sample size is still too small to draw any definite conclusions.
1) John Tavares has arrived. He was drafted 69th overall in my 20 team fantasy league and that was way too low (he went after Heatley and before Skinner).
2) Thus far media spending 80% of their time discussing discipline and micro-analyzing which hits are legal; 20% of their time talking about actual hockey games.
3) Boston, Tampa, San Jose, and Vancouver, last year's final four teams are all sitting outside a playoff spot with a combined 6 wins in 18 games. By contrast, Toronto, NY Islanders, Dallas and Colorado (who all missed the playoffs last season) have 14 wins in 17 games.
4) Phil Kessel is putting up 2.6 PTS per game through the first 3 games putting him on pace for 213 PTS this season. If he scores 85 or more PTS, Toronto is a playoff team.
5) Slow starts for Alex Ovechkin, Corey Perry, Joe Thornton, and Jarome Iginla; combining for 4 PTS in 15 GP. Not good.
6) Dallas might be fine without Brad Richards. Off to a 4-1 start, it would appear that the Stars have not skipped a beat since losing their top player. Kari Lehtonen is looking great on my fantasy team.
7) David Legwand shares the lead in NHL scoring with 8 PTS in 4 GP, and he was drafted 279th overall in my fantasy league.
8) Craig Anderson sucks. He has shown flashes of genius in the last 3 years, but so far this season he's been atrocious.
9) Vancouver fans are not going to forgive Luongo's meltdown in the Cup finals, which is very apparent if you listen to local talk radio. This could become a toxic situation very quickly for the emotionally fragile goaltender. The team needs Kesler back, and he's set to return next game.
10) Ottawa should start playing Gonchar at forward even strength. He's a severe liability on the blue line unless there is a man advantage.
11) Joffrey Lupul might actually be effective, where his contract looked like dead money when Toronto acquired him. He works great with Kessel, which does make the Connolly signing less relevant and over-priced.
1) John Tavares has arrived. He was drafted 69th overall in my 20 team fantasy league and that was way too low (he went after Heatley and before Skinner).
2) Thus far media spending 80% of their time discussing discipline and micro-analyzing which hits are legal; 20% of their time talking about actual hockey games.
3) Boston, Tampa, San Jose, and Vancouver, last year's final four teams are all sitting outside a playoff spot with a combined 6 wins in 18 games. By contrast, Toronto, NY Islanders, Dallas and Colorado (who all missed the playoffs last season) have 14 wins in 17 games.
4) Phil Kessel is putting up 2.6 PTS per game through the first 3 games putting him on pace for 213 PTS this season. If he scores 85 or more PTS, Toronto is a playoff team.
5) Slow starts for Alex Ovechkin, Corey Perry, Joe Thornton, and Jarome Iginla; combining for 4 PTS in 15 GP. Not good.
6) Dallas might be fine without Brad Richards. Off to a 4-1 start, it would appear that the Stars have not skipped a beat since losing their top player. Kari Lehtonen is looking great on my fantasy team.
7) David Legwand shares the lead in NHL scoring with 8 PTS in 4 GP, and he was drafted 279th overall in my fantasy league.
8) Craig Anderson sucks. He has shown flashes of genius in the last 3 years, but so far this season he's been atrocious.
9) Vancouver fans are not going to forgive Luongo's meltdown in the Cup finals, which is very apparent if you listen to local talk radio. This could become a toxic situation very quickly for the emotionally fragile goaltender. The team needs Kesler back, and he's set to return next game.
10) Ottawa should start playing Gonchar at forward even strength. He's a severe liability on the blue line unless there is a man advantage.
11) Joffrey Lupul might actually be effective, where his contract looked like dead money when Toronto acquired him. He works great with Kessel, which does make the Connolly signing less relevant and over-priced.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Vancouver Turning On Luongo
The season is only one week old, and already the city of Vancouver is reaching a boiling point of resentment towards goaltender Roberto Luongo. He has only played a few games and let in a few bad goals, but already the angry phone calls are flooding in to Sportstalk radio. It would seem that the people have not forgotten Lou's embarrassing collapse in last year's playoffs. He's like a Dr.Jeckyl-Mr.Hyde character who is either great or brutal. You can tell when a meltdown is coming because he gets a specific kind of desperate look in his eyes. If cameras zoom in on his face after a goal and his expression is like an 8 year old watching Night of the Living Dead, expect another goal and soon, possibly on the next shot. This is magnified in the playoffs.
Coming off of a Vezina nomination, you'd expect a little more goodwill towards Luongo in this city, but no. He was great in the playoffs against Nashville and San Jose, but had epic meltdowns against Chicago and Boston. That Olympic gold medal was "so" 2010. I don't believe that he deserves this treatment from the fans, but he definitely deserves a fair share of the blame for Vancouver's meltdown against Boston. The Canucks lack of team toughness also played a part, and Tim Thomas was brilliant.
Whether I believe Roberto deserves it or not, the animosity in this city is very real and very palpable. You don't need to spend much time listening to the Team 1040 to understand. It won't be long before the fans are chanting "Boooooooooo" instead of "Loooooooooo".
Coming off of a Vezina nomination, you'd expect a little more goodwill towards Luongo in this city, but no. He was great in the playoffs against Nashville and San Jose, but had epic meltdowns against Chicago and Boston. That Olympic gold medal was "so" 2010. I don't believe that he deserves this treatment from the fans, but he definitely deserves a fair share of the blame for Vancouver's meltdown against Boston. The Canucks lack of team toughness also played a part, and Tim Thomas was brilliant.
Whether I believe Roberto deserves it or not, the animosity in this city is very real and very palpable. You don't need to spend much time listening to the Team 1040 to understand. It won't be long before the fans are chanting "Boooooooooo" instead of "Loooooooooo".
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Being A Detroit Lions Fan
The Detroit Lions are off to their best start in over half a century, and as a long suffering fan, I'm almost ready to love again. Being a Detroit Lions fan hasn't been easy. I'm not from Detroit, but fell in love with this team watching Barry Sanders run the football. The team has not had a legitimate contender in my lifetime and has been consistently among the worst teams in the league. My life as a football fan has been getting jacked up if my favourite team plays .500 ball. At least in the 90s we had the joy of watching Barry Sanders symphony on turf, until he ripped our hearts out with his sudden unexpected retirement. Since Barry retired, the team has 56 wins and 136 loses including an entire season without winning a single game. The team has not had a winning record for ten years, the Matt Millen era, forevermore known as "the dark times".
This team has been utterly and completely pathetic for an entire decade, that is until now. The team has replaced their "wet paper bag" defensive line with one of the best units in football, led by cult hero Ndamakong Suh. Calvin Johnson is the most dangerous wide receiver in the game and he's got a QB who can get him the football. Herman Moore is but a distant memory. Jahvid Best has his best years ahead of him, and suddenly this team has quality pieces in the right places.
Dare I say...playoffs? What percentage of teams who start the season 5-0 go on to make the playoffs? It has to be good, right?
This team has been utterly and completely pathetic for an entire decade, that is until now. The team has replaced their "wet paper bag" defensive line with one of the best units in football, led by cult hero Ndamakong Suh. Calvin Johnson is the most dangerous wide receiver in the game and he's got a QB who can get him the football. Herman Moore is but a distant memory. Jahvid Best has his best years ahead of him, and suddenly this team has quality pieces in the right places.
Dare I say...playoffs? What percentage of teams who start the season 5-0 go on to make the playoffs? It has to be good, right?
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Best/Worst Fantasy Football Playoff Schedules 2011
Which NFL football teams face the easiest and toughest schedules in weeks 13, 14, 15, 16 when most fantasy playoffs are taking place? You want to win your fantasy league and those are the weeks when you are most likely to be competing for the championship. The rankings below are based on the average yards per game allowed so far this season by their future opponents in weeks 13-16, split into rushing and passing. It's pretty simple. The number you see on the right is a strength of schedule percentage based multiplier. Ergo if you have two players who average 10 pts per game, one has a multiplier of 1.2 the other 0.8, then their expected fantasy points would be 12 and 8 respectively.
Passing Defense: This is a multiplier for your QBs and WRs. As it happens the Denver Broncos face the easiest pass defenses in those critical weeks. That can only help Tim Tebow who struggles throwing the football. Beware the Baltimore Ravens. Get what you can for Joe Flacco, as he faces a tough schedule.
Rushing Defense: Looks like the RB with the best schedule in the fantasy playoffs is one Marshawn Lynch. Cincinnati looks good and if Cedric Benson is suspended, I bet you can get him at a pretty low price. He'll be back and rested in time for your playoffs, if you have room on your bench to stash him.
Passing Defense: This is a multiplier for your QBs and WRs. As it happens the Denver Broncos face the easiest pass defenses in those critical weeks. That can only help Tim Tebow who struggles throwing the football. Beware the Baltimore Ravens. Get what you can for Joe Flacco, as he faces a tough schedule.
Rank | Team | |
1 | Denver | 1.19 |
2 | Miami | 1.15 |
3 | Kansas City | 1.11 |
4 | Green Bay | 1.11 |
5 | Oakland | 1.11 |
6 | Chicago | 1.11 |
7 | Washington | 1.08 |
8 | New England | 1.06 |
9 | Carolina | 1.04 |
10 | New Orleans | 1.04 |
11 | Philadelphia | 1.03 |
12 | Tennessee | 1.02 |
13 | Detroit | 1.02 |
14 | Seattle | 1.01 |
15 | Dallas | 1.00 |
16 | Houston | 0.99 |
17 | Buffalo | 0.99 |
18 | Indianapolis | 0.99 |
19 | Jacksonville | 0.97 |
20 | Minnesota | 0.97 |
21 | NY Giants | 0.97 |
22 | San Diego | 0.96 |
23 | San Francisco | 0.95 |
24 | NY Jets | 0.95 |
25 | Tampa Bay | 0.93 |
26 | Atlanta | 0.92 |
27 | St. Louis | 0.92 |
28 | Arizona | 0.90 |
29 | Pittsburgh | 0.90 |
30 | Cincinnati | 0.89 |
31 | Cleveland | 0.88 |
32 | Baltimore | 0.84 |
Rushing Defense: Looks like the RB with the best schedule in the fantasy playoffs is one Marshawn Lynch. Cincinnati looks good and if Cedric Benson is suspended, I bet you can get him at a pretty low price. He'll be back and rested in time for your playoffs, if you have room on your bench to stash him.
Rank | Team | |
1 | Seattle | 1.20 |
2 | Cincinnati | 1.15 |
3 | Miami | 1.14 |
4 | Baltimore | 1.14 |
5 | San Francisco | 1.14 |
6 | Dallas | 1.13 |
7 | Green Bay | 1.12 |
8 | Tennessee | 1.11 |
9 | Pittsburgh | 1.06 |
10 | Kansas City | 1.05 |
11 | NY Jets | 1.05 |
12 | New England | 1.04 |
13 | Houston | 1.03 |
14 | Denver | 1.03 |
15 | Atlanta | 1.01 |
16 | Buffalo | 1.01 |
17 | Carolina | 0.99 |
18 | Washington | 0.99 |
19 | Tampa Bay | 0.97 |
20 | Jacksonville | 0.97 |
21 | Minnesota | 0.97 |
22 | San Diego | 0.96 |
23 | Detroit | 0.95 |
24 | Oakland | 0.94 |
25 | Chicago | 0.94 |
26 | Philadelphia | 0.90 |
27 | Indianapolis | 0.88 |
28 | New Orleans | 0.87 |
29 | Cleveland | 0.84 |
30 | St. Louis | 0.84 |
31 | NY Giants | 0.80 |
32 | Arizona | 0.79 |
Friday, October 7, 2011
Don Cherry Lashes Out At Chris Nilan
Normally when Don Cherry creates a controversy, I'm among the first to defend and support him. But on the opening night of the NHL season, he went too far when he lashed out at the former enforcers who had a candid conversation with Michael Landsberg about fighting in hockey. Chris Nilan is well within his rights to have the opinion that hockey goon is a dangerous profession with possible serious side effects. He did the job and he's lived the life. If that's his opinion, then you accept that as his opinion even if you disagree with him. Disagree with him if you must, but don't make it personal, calling them hypocrites and lashing out that they even have that opinion.
As a hockey fan I enjoy the pugilism of hockey fights and support its inclusion in the sport. It can be dangerous. Be aware of the risk before choosing it as a profession. You do get hazard pay. The league minimum is around half a million dollars per season. For 82 games with 3-10 minutes of ice time to fight a few times is not a bad racket. It's better than working in a coal mine in China. Would you rather work at a nuclear power plant? Just because a job is dangerous does not mean it should be illegal.
Perhaps the point Don was trying to make was that Chris Nilan earned a lot of money doing what did over his career; a lot more money than he would have made scrubbing toilets. If you make fighting illegal than the players with this particular skill set are denied the opportunity to choose. I just don't think Don chose his words well.
As a hockey fan I enjoy the pugilism of hockey fights and support its inclusion in the sport. It can be dangerous. Be aware of the risk before choosing it as a profession. You do get hazard pay. The league minimum is around half a million dollars per season. For 82 games with 3-10 minutes of ice time to fight a few times is not a bad racket. It's better than working in a coal mine in China. Would you rather work at a nuclear power plant? Just because a job is dangerous does not mean it should be illegal.
Perhaps the point Don was trying to make was that Chris Nilan earned a lot of money doing what did over his career; a lot more money than he would have made scrubbing toilets. If you make fighting illegal than the players with this particular skill set are denied the opportunity to choose. I just don't think Don chose his words well.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Kadri To Be Traded For Spezza?
Today on Twitter Barry MaGuire from TSN tweeted "Bozak, Gunnarson, and Kadri for Spezza". No doubt Leaf Nation lit up after seeing that rumour pop up on their computer screens. Ottawa originally wanted to draft Kadri until the Leafs selected him shortly before their pick, so in that sense it makes sense that Ottawa wants to acquire him. That being said, I have trouble believing that the Senators would trade such a dynamic offensive player to their most hated rival. There is no question that Ottawa has been desperately trying to find a buyer for Spezza's expensive contract, which is one of the worst contracts in hockey. The majority of teams aren't interested in spending $7M per year for a player who had 57 PTS last season in 62 GP.
So while this contract is an albatross that the Sens are trying to sell, they will make Toronto overpay for the player if any trade is made. Spezza's high end upside is in the 90 point range, and that organization and fan base do not want to get burned be the Leafs. Spezza's high end production days may be behind him, but I still don't see him wearing a Leafs jersey.
So while this contract is an albatross that the Sens are trying to sell, they will make Toronto overpay for the player if any trade is made. Spezza's high end upside is in the 90 point range, and that organization and fan base do not want to get burned be the Leafs. Spezza's high end production days may be behind him, but I still don't see him wearing a Leafs jersey.
Tim Connolly Starts Season On Injured Reserve
Allow me to express my shock and awe that the Toronto Maple Leafs new #1 center and free agent saviour Tim Connolly will start the season on injured reserve. Connolly is no stranger to injury, but what makes this one so strange is that he wiped out in practice! That is just too funny, and a great way to start the Connolly era in Leaf Nation. Perhaps we should all start calling him TIMMY like the handicapped kid in South Park? He is a talented player and nobody questions his skill with the hockey puck; but what can be questioned is his ability to stay healthy.
Do you really want a hypochondriac as your #1 center? Steve Simmons asked on Twitter, over/under 68 games. It would probably be smart to take the under.
Do you really want a hypochondriac as your #1 center? Steve Simmons asked on Twitter, over/under 68 games. It would probably be smart to take the under.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
NHL Top 300 Scorers For 2011/12 Forecast
Here is my forecast list for the NHL's top 300 scorers this 2011/12 season. There is some complex mathematics involved in the making of this list, which ironically predicted a 4 way tie for the NHL's leading point scorer between D.Sedin, Ovechkin, Perry, and Stamkos. Last year's data was the primary source, modified based on an age based rate of decline. 2009/2010 data was included in the database to measure last season's rate of decline or improvement. Players with large increases or declines in production are likely to regress back towards their mean.
Without further adieu, here are my projections. Note that the games played predictions are just an educated guess.
Without further adieu, here are my projections. Note that the games played predictions are just an educated guess.
Player | Team | GP | PTS |
Daniel Sedin | VAN | 82 | 96 |
Steven Stamkos | TB | 82 | 96 |
Corey Perry | ANA | 82 | 96 |
Alex Ovechkin | WSH | 79 | 96 |
Martin St. Louis | TB | 82 | 92 |
Ryan Getzlaf | ANA | 75 | 89 |
Sidney Crosby | PIT | 60 | 87 |
Henrik Sedin | VAN | 82 | 86 |
Jonathan Toews | CHI | 80 | 82 |
Patrick Kane | CHI | 75 | 81 |
Claude Giroux | PHI | 82 | 79 |
Nicklas Backstrom | WSH | 79 | 79 |
Henrik Zetterberg | DET | 80 | 77 |
Bobby Ryan | ANA | 82 | 77 |
Thomas Vanek | BUF | 80 | 76 |
Eric Staal | CAR | 81 | 76 |
Anze Kopitar | LA | 75 | 75 |
Brad Richards | NYR | 72 | 74 |
Evgeni Malkin | PIT | 73 | 73 |
Matt Duchene | COL | 80 | 73 |
John Tavares | NYI | 79 | 72 |
Jarome Iginla | CGY | 75 | 72 |
Jeff Skinner | CAR | 82 | 72 |
Rick Nash | CBJ | 75 | 71 |
Loui Eriksson | DAL | 79 | 70 |
Pavel Datsyuk | DET | 70 | 70 |
Derek Roy | BUF | 73 | 70 |
Patrick Marleau | SJ | 82 | 69 |
Ilya Kovalchuk | NJ | 81 | 69 |
Alexander Semin | WSH | 75 | 69 |
Jamie Benn | DAL | 76 | 68 |
Mike Ribeiro | DAL | 82 | 68 |
Mikko Koivu | MIN | 75 | 68 |
Joe Pavelski | SJ | 75 | 67 |
Mike Richards | LA | 81 | 67 |
Phil Kessel | TOR | 82 | 67 |
Chris Stewart | STL | 75 | 66 |
Joe Thornton | SJ | 80 | 66 |
Patrick Sharp | CHI | 74 | 66 |
Teemu Selanne | ANA | 70 | 66 |
Jason Spezza | OTT | 72 | 66 |
Ryane Clowe | SJ | 75 | 65 |
Zach Parise | NJ | 75 | 65 |
Jeff Carter | CBJ | 80 | 64 |
Marian Hossa | CHI | 76 | 63 |
Lubomir Visnovsky | ANA | 80 | 63 |
Danny Briere | PHI | 77 | 63 |
Alex Tanguay | CGY | 76 | 63 |
David Backes | STL | 82 | 62 |
David Krejci | BOS | 77 | 62 |
Paul Stastny | COL | 75 | 62 |
Milan Lucic | BOS | 78 | 61 |
Marian Gaborik | NYR | 70 | 61 |
Brandon Dubinsky | NYR | 80 | 61 |
Keith Yandle | PHX | 82 | 61 |
Ales Hemsky | EDM | 68 | 60 |
Andrew Ladd | WPG | 81 | 60 |
Martin Havlat | SJ | 78 | 60 |
Logan Couture | SJ | 79 | 60 |
Drew Stafford | BUF | 74 | 60 |
Vincent Lecavalier | TB | 72 | 60 |
Clarke MacArthur | TOR | 82 | 59 |
Taylor Hall | EDM | 78 | 59 |
Ryan Callahan | NYR | 72 | 58 |
Ryan Kesler | VAN | 72 | 58 |
R.J. Umberger | CBJ | 82 | 58 |
Mikhail Grabovski | TOR | 80 | 57 |
Dustin Brown | LA | 82 | 57 |
Nicklas Lidstrom | DET | 82 | 56 |
Tyler Ennis | BUF | 82 | 56 |
Jordan Eberle | EDM | 78 | 56 |
Patrik Elias | NJ | 81 | 56 |
Dany Heatley | MIN | 80 | 56 |
Tomas Plekanec | MTL | 77 | 56 |
Nikolai Kulemin | TOR | 82 | 55 |
Patrik Berglund | STL | 81 | 55 |
Jussi Jokinen | CAR | 75 | 55 |
Shane Doan | PHX | 72 | 55 |
Tobias Enstrom | WPG | 75 | 55 |
Evander Kane | WPG | 75 | 55 |
Michael Grabner | NYI | 76 | 54 |
James Neal | PIT | 79 | 54 |
Stephen Weiss | FLA | 76 | 53 |
Alexander Steen | STL | 75 | 53 |
Sergei Kostitsyn | NSH | 78 | 53 |
Brad Boyes | BUF | 82 | 53 |
Martin Erat | NSH | 70 | 53 |
Matt Moulson | NYI | 82 | 52 |
Duncan Keith | CHI | 82 | 52 |
Tuomo Ruutu | CAR | 76 | 52 |
Milan Hejduk | COL | 73 | 52 |
Teddy Purcell | TB | 81 | 52 |
Olli Jokinen | CGY | 79 | 52 |
Jordan Staal | PIT | 68 | 51 |
Patrice Bergeron | BOS | 75 | 51 |
Patric Hornqvist | NSH | 80 | 51 |
Pierre-Marc Bouchard | MIN | 70 | 51 |
T.J. Oshie | STL | 71 | 51 |
Travis Zajac | NJ | 82 | 50 |
Johan Franzen | DET | 74 | 50 |
Dustin Byfuglien | WPG | 81 | 50 |
Alexander Edler | VAN | 75 | 50 |
Andy McDonald | STL | 65 | 50 |
Jakub Voracek | Phi | 80 | 50 |
Dustin Penner | LA | 81 | 50 |
Derek Brassard | CBJ | 75 | 50 |
Derek Stepan | NYR | 82 | 50 |
Ville Leino | BUF | 82 | 50 |
Chris Kunitz | PIT | 73 | 50 |
Ryan Whitney | EDM | 73 | 50 |
Vaclav Prospal | CBJ | 70 | 50 |
Shea Weber | NSH | 82 | 50 |
Brenden Morrow | DAL | 82 | 50 |
Blake Comeau | NYI | 80 | 50 |
Ray Whitney | PHX | 75 | 50 |
Antoine Vermette | CBJ | 82 | 49 |
Nathan Horton | BOS | 73 | 49 |
Kris Letang | PIT | 82 | 49 |
Jason Pominville | BUF | 70 | 49 |
Dan Boyle | SJ | 76 | 48 |
Erik Karlsson | OTT | 78 | 48 |
Devin Setoguchi | MIN | 75 | 48 |
Mike Cammalleri | MTL | 70 | 48 |
Rene Bourque | CGY | 80 | 48 |
Scott Hartnell | PHI | 82 | 48 |
Brent Burns | SJ | 80 | 48 |
Brooks Laich | WSH | 82 | 47 |
Artem Anisimov | NYR | 82 | 47 |
Bryan Little | WPG | 76 | 47 |
Justin Williams | LA | 68 | 47 |
Sam Gagner | EDM | 75 | 47 |
Alex Goligoski | DAL | 82 | 47 |
David Jones | COL | 80 | 47 |
Tomas Fleischmann | FLA | 72 | 47 |
Radim Vrbata | PHX | 80 | 47 |
James Wisniewski | CBJ | 72 | 46 |
Alex Burrows | VAN | 72 | 46 |
Frans Nielsen | NYI | 74 | 46 |
Andrei Kostitsyn | MTL | 81 | 46 |
P.A. Parenteau | NYI | 81 | 46 |
Blake Wheeler | WPG | 81 | 46 |
Wojtek Wolski | NYR | 73 | 45 |
Erik Cole | MTL | 78 | 45 |
Brad Marchand | BOS | 78 | 45 |
Alex Pietrangelo | STL | 79 | 45 |
Kris Versteeg | FLA | 80 | 44 |
Kevin Shattenkirk | STL | 72 | 44 |
Michael Frolik | CHI | 80 | 44 |
Drew Doughty | LA | 72 | 44 |
Bobby Butler | OTT | 72 | 44 |
Jarret Stoll | LA | 82 | 44 |
Tyler Myers | BUF | 80 | 44 |
Andrew Cogliano | ANA | 82 | 44 |
John-Michael Liles | TOR | 75 | 44 |
James van Riemsdyk | PHI | 75 | 44 |
Jack Johnson | LA | 82 | 44 |
Daniel Cleary | DET | 70 | 44 |
Mike Green | WSH | 67 | 44 |
Tyler Kennedy | PIT | 80 | 43 |
Ryan Suter | NSH | 75 | 43 |
Valtteri Filppula | DET | 73 | 43 |
Guillaume Latendresse | MIN | 75 | 43 |
Tomas Kaberle | CAR | 82 | 43 |
Rich Peverley | BOS | 82 | 43 |
Brent Seabrook | CHI | 75 | 43 |
Cam Fowler | ANA | 78 | 43 |
Mikael Samuelsson | VAN | 75 | 43 |
Scott Gomez | MTL | 80 | 43 |
David Booth | FLA | 80 | 42 |
Tyler Seguin | BOS | 74 | 42 |
Zdeno Chara | BOS | 81 | 42 |
Brian Gionta | MTL | 82 | 42 |
Mikael Backlund | CGY | 77 | 42 |
Curtis Glencross | CGY | 79 | 42 |
Matt Carle | PHI | 82 | 42 |
Tim Connolly | TOR | 70 | 41 |
Benoit Pouliot | BOS | 79 | 41 |
Nathan Gerbe | BUF | 71 | 41 |
Dave Bolland | CHI | 70 | 41 |
Matt D'Agostini | STL | 82 | 41 |
David Legwand | NSH | 72 | 41 |
Christian Ehrhoff | BUF | 75 | 41 |
P.K. Subban | MTL | 79 | 41 |
Mark Giordano | CGY | 82 | 41 |
Anthony Stewart | CAR | 75 | 41 |
Tyler Bozak | TOR | 82 | 40 |
Andrew Brunette | CHI | 82 | 40 |
Grant Clitsome | CBJ | 68 | 40 |
Dennis Wideman | WSH | 75 | 40 |
Matt Calvert | CBJ | 68 | 40 |
Niclas Bergfors | NSH | 75 | 40 |
Kyle Okposo | NYI | 70 | 40 |
Magnus Paajarvi | EDM | 80 | 40 |
Marek Zidlicky | MIN | 74 | 39 |
Ryan Smyth | EDM | 78 | 39 |
Lauri Korpikoski | PHX | 80 | 39 |
Simon Gagne | LA | 65 | 39 |
Joffrey Lupul | TOR | 65 | 39 |
Bryan Bickell | CHI | 78 | 39 |
John Carlson | WSH | 82 | 39 |
Nik Antropov | WPG | 76 | 38 |
Andrei Markov | MTL | 65 | 38 |
Colin Wilson | NSH | 82 | 38 |
Linus Omark | EDM | 67 | 38 |
Todd Bertuzzi | DET | 79 | 37 |
Kyle Brodziak | MIN | 80 | 37 |
Milan Michalek | OTT | 74 | 37 |
Jiri Hudler | DET | 73 | 37 |
Saku Koivu | ANA | 73 | 37 |
Niklas Kronwall | DET | 77 | 37 |
Mason Raymond | VAN | 65 | 37 |
Troy Brouwer | WSH | 79 | 37 |
Cal O'Reilly | NSH | 74 | 37 |
Anton Babchuk | CGY | 82 | 37 |
Colin Greening | OTT | 65 | 37 |
Nick Foligno | OTT | 82 | 37 |
Peter Regin | OTT | 74 | 37 |
Scottie Upshall | FLA | 80 | 36 |
Joni Pitkanen | CAR | 74 | 36 |
Shawn Horcoff | EDM | 69 | 36 |
Brendan Morrison | Cgy | 69 | 36 |
Ryan Malone | TB | 54 | 36 |
Joe Corvo | BOS | 80 | 36 |
Kimmo Timonen | PHI | 82 | 35 |
Matt Stajan | CGY | 76 | 35 |
Dion Phaneuf | TOR | 74 | 35 |
Eric Belanger | EDM | 82 | 35 |
Mats Zuccarello | NYR | 60 | 35 |
Darren Helm | DET | 82 | 35 |
Tomas Kopecky | FLA | 81 | 34 |
Max Pacioretty | MTL | 60 | 34 |
Lee Stempniak | CGY | 82 | 34 |
Erik Johnson | COL | 79 | 34 |
Zac Dalpe | CAR | 72 | 34 |
Steve Downie | TB | 57 | 34 |
Andrej Meszaros | PHI | 81 | 34 |
Martin Hanzal | PHX | 73 | 33 |
Pascal Dupuis | PIT | 81 | 33 |
Cal Clutterbuck | MIN | 76 | 33 |
Matt Cullen | MIN | 78 | 33 |
Wayne Simmonds | Phi | 80 | 33 |
Sergei Gonchar | OTT | 70 | 33 |
Brandon Sutter | CAR | 82 | 33 |
Ian White | DET | 78 | 33 |
Kristian Huselius | CBJ | 61 | 33 |
Dan Girardi | NYR | 80 | 33 |
Roman Hamrlik | WSH | 79 | 32 |
Jamie McBain | CAR | 78 | 32 |
Mike Knuble | WSH | 79 | 32 |
Mike Fisher | NSH | 73 | 32 |
Dennis Seidenberg | BOS | 81 | 32 |
David Moss | CGY | 65 | 32 |
Michael Ryder | DAL | 77 | 32 |
Ryan O'Reilly | COL | 75 | 32 |
Josh Bailey | NYI | 70 | 32 |
Cory Stillman | CAR | 60 | 32 |
Mike Santorelli | FLA | 73 | 31 |
Evgeni Dadonov | FLA | 60 | 31 |
Andrew MacDonald | NYI | 72 | 31 |
Christopher Higgins | VAN | 70 | 31 |
Marcus Johansson | WSH | 69 | 31 |
Vladimir Sobotka | STL | 65 | 31 |
Nazem Kadri | TOR | 65 | 31 |
Jannik Hansen | VAN | 82 | 31 |
Nikita Filatov | OTT | 70 | 31 |
Cody Franson | TOR | 80 | 31 |
Jordan Leopold | BUF | 74 | 31 |
Andrej Sekera | BUF | 76 | 31 |
Mikkel Boedker | PHX | 65 | 30 |
Daniel Alfredsson | OTT | 60 | 30 |
Rostislav Olesz | CHI | 68 | 30 |
Tomas Holmstrom | DET | 73 | 30 |
Marcel Goc | FLA | 64 | 30 |
Paul Gaustad | BUF | 81 | 30 |
Kyle Turris | PHX | 68 | 30 |
Brandon McMillan | ANA | 72 | 29 |
Brandon Yip | COL | 73 | 29 |
Brett Clark | TB | 82 | 29 |
Dominic Moore | TB | 77 | 29 |
Brandon Prust | NYR | 82 | 29 |
Sean Bergenheim | FLA | 80 | 29 |
Steve Ott | DAL | 78 | 29 |
Taylor Pyatt | PHX | 76 | 29 |
Erik Condra | OTT | 65 | 29 |
Dmitry Kulikov | FLA | 75 | 29 |
Brian Boyle | NYR | 82 | 29 |
Gregory Campbell | BOS | 80 | 28 |
Paul Martin | PIT | 79 | 28 |
Colby Armstrong | TOR | 64 | 28 |
Stephane Robidas | DAL | 81 | 28 |
Shawn Matthias | FLA | 80 | 28 |
Brian Campbell | FLA | 71 | 28 |
Chris Kelly | BOS | 81 | 28 |
Tom Gilbert | EDM | 79 | 28 |
Mark Letestu | PIT | 64 | 28 |
Marc Staal | NYR | 70 | 28 |
Victor Hedman | TB | 79 | 28 |
Matt Cooke | PIT | 70 | 28 |
Brian Rolston | NYI | 65 | 28 |
Chad LaRose | CAR | 76 | 27 |
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