Sunday, February 18, 2018

NHL 2017/18 Week 20 Fantasy Hockey Report

Players to watch, all formats:

1) Antti Raanta, Pho, (27% Yahoo ownership): He’s available in several leagues and the Coyotes have been hot. In his last 6 GP, Raanta has a 2.40 GAA and .928 SV%. If you need a goalie who is probably available and currently playing well, here’s one.

2) Nico Hischier, NJ, (27% Yahoo ownership): The first overall pick has been overshadowed by a strong rookie class this season, and started slower than his peers. He’s scored 7 PTS in his last 4 GP. Be on alert. At his age there’s a ton of potential upside.

3) Clayton Keller, Pho, (43% Yahoo ownership): The rookie has run hot and cold this season, but when he’s been hot, he’s been really good. With the Coyotes on a roll, Keller has 8 PTS in his last 6 GP. Hop back on the bandwagon in all but the shallowest formats.

4) Nick Leddy, NYI, (58% Yahoo ownership): If you’re in a standard league and Leddy is on the waiver wire, he’s worth picking up. With 7 PTS in his last 8 GP, he’s on pace for 50 PTS on the season.

5) Derek Stepan, Pho, (27% Yahoo ownership): He is available on most standard league waiver wires. The Coyotes are on a roll and Stepan has scored 7 PTS in his last 7 GP. He’s probably already owned in every league that counts Face-off wins, but can also help you in Shots and Power Play PTS.

Going Deep: players owned in 10% of leagues or less:

1) Thomas Chabot, Ott, (4% Yahoo ownership): Prospect alert! With Dion Phaneuf being shipped out of town, the Senators have cleared some room for their prized defensive prospect. Now he’s got 5 PTS in 6 GP. That ownership will climb if he keeps putting up PTS, you can decide how early you want in.

2) Oliver Bjorkstrand, Cbj, (6% Yahoo ownership):  After a prolonged slump to start 2018, the kid has been hot lately, scoring 6 PTS in his last 7 GP. He’s a skilled 22-year-old player with 32 PTS in 58 GP on a team that has been struggling to score. He’s hot right now.

3) Zach Astonreese, Pit, (3% Yahoo ownership): Be aware there’s a new kid who has been getting some ice time with Sidney Crosby and has scored 5 PTS in his last 5 GP. There’s no guarantee this continues for much longer, but it’s still a good gamble to take in deeper leagues.

4) Nick Ritchie, Ana, (4% Yahoo ownership): Ritchie is 8th in the NHL in Hits this season. If your league counts that category, he’s a must own. The offense wasn’t there at the beginning of the season, but he’s now scored 6 PTS in his last 7 GP. He has also been strong in Shots on Goal lately, especially for a player averaging around 12 minutes of ice time.

5) Ondrej Kase, Ana, (7% Yahoo ownership): In his last 14 GP he’s scored 11 PTS with 33 Shots and a +7. That would have helped you in any league, certainly a must add in those with 14 or more teams.

The 1%: Top 3 Players to Add that are 1% Owned or Less

1) Travis Zajac, NJ: Zajac is back in a top line role and has 7 PTS in his last 8 GP. An injury had derailed his season, but he has since rounded back into form. He’s a good add in deep leagues, and he’s available in a few. He should be added in all leagues that count Face-off wins.

2) Dennis Malgin, Fla: He’s a small quick player with good offensive upside so long as he can sustain his ice time. Malgin has scored 8 PTS in his last 10 GP. That’s worth a speculative play in deep leagues.

3) Nick Bonino, Nsh: After a slow start to the season, Bonino has been good in the new year. 8 PTS in his last 13 GP while averaging over 16 minutes of ice time. He’s getting good opportunities on a team with some talented offensive players, worth owning in more than 1%.

Be concerned:

1) Milan Lucic, Edm, (60% Yahoo ownership): The big guy has gone pointless in 10 GP over which time he’s -9. If you’re holding on to him for Penalty Minutes, he’s not even getting very many of those. You can drop him in standard leagues.

2) Tyler Toffoli, LA, (69% Yahoo ownership): Another player who is droppable in standard leagues who has only scored 3 PTS in his last 13 GP. He will probably break out of the slump eventually, but shallow leagues have so many options on the waiver wire that there’s no point being too patient.

3) Jonathon Bernier, Col, (51% Yahoo ownership): Varlamov is back and playing hockey games. Bernier had seen his play regress before suffering a head injury. If you’ve got him in a standard league, I’d rather have Anti Raanta.

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Drafting Stanley Cup Champions (2004-2016)

How many draft picks become Stanley Cup Champions? Of 2500+ non-goalies drafted from 2004 to 2016, 59 have won the Stanley Cup (2%). How does this sample of the draft pick population compare to the non-Cup Winning picks? Not shockingly, the bulk of this sample comes from Chicago, LA, and Pittsburgh. There may be a "chicken or the egg" dilemma with the data set. Did these teams win because they drafted this way, or did they hit on a few super stars (Malkin, Crosby, Toews, Kane, Kopitar, Doughty), bringing everyone else along for the ride? It may be a little bit of both.

The histogram below shows the total number of Cup Winning Picks by round drafted (goalies not included, or players older than 21).

The shape of the graph is a bit different from draft pick value by round for the non-championship winning population. The 2nd round is closer to the 1st round than it should be based on standard draft pick value, the 5th round beats the 3rd round, and there's a flat slope starting from round 3. The Stanley Cup champions do need to hit on some later round draft picks. The Penguins got Letang and Guentzel in the 3rd, the Hawks got Hjalmarrson in the 4th and Shaw in the 5th, the Kings got Alec Martinez in the 4th and Muzzin in the 5th. Even with elite talent at the top of the line-up, you need to hit on some later picks to win the title.

The "chicken or the egg" dilemma applies to the success of the 2nd round picks. Are teams more likely to win the Stanley Cup if they hit on round two, or are the 2nd rounders just more likely to be passengers on the train? Players like Krejci, Lucic, Saad, Voynov, Toffoli, made a significant contribution to trophies, others were mostly passengers and role players. There is a steeper decline in success rate from 2nd to 3rd round among Cup Winning Picks than we see in the non-Cup population. If non-1st round picks are just more likely to be passengers, we should see more 3rd rounders winning Cups. This does suggest there is some truth to the theory that it's important for Cup contenders to hit on 2nd round picks.

Where do they come from?

The chart below shows what percentage of the draft population played at least 10 games in each feeder league in their first year of draft eligibility. Some prospects play in more than one league, so the totals don't necessarily sum to 100%.

The proportion of draft pick sources are comparable between Cup and non-Cup draft picks. There is a slightly larger proportion of Canadian major junior players, and a smaller % drafted from tier II. The NCAA number is that small because of the small number of kids who have finished high school by their NHL draft eligibility. Most of the college bound kids are playing tier II. Does this mean that teams are more likely to succeed in the playoffs if they draft more from CHL than the NCAA and its feeder leagues? It's possible. CHL players tend to turn pro sooner, so the dynasty teams that need young guys to plug holes at a discount, can get help faster if they draft from junior.

We do see the Cup Winning Picks with a higher proportion from European Elite leagues, which doesn't necessarily mean that drafting from those leagues will produce more championships. There are very few players who are good enough to play in the higher level elite leagues in their draft year. Teenagers playing in Elite leagues have very high upside, if you can get them.

The chart below shows the rate at which Cup Winning Picks enter the NHL versus the rest of the draft population.

50% of Cup winning draft picks will play at least 10 NHL regular season games at age 20, and over 70% by age 21. These are the ages where we see the greatest difference in growth (or slope) of the samples above. Players who go on to win Stanley Cups are getting fast tracked to the NHL after entry level slide at a greater rate than other picks.  Does this mean that teams are more likely to win the cup if they fast track their draft picks? Probably not. We're talking about Chicago, Pittsburgh, LA, teams who have won Cups under the salary cap crunch. It's more likely these teams are forced to fast-track their best young players to plug holes in the line-up for cheap.

Friday, February 16, 2018

10 Worst NHL Contracts Traded For Good Value (2005-2017)

What have been the 10 worst NHL contracts in the salary cap era who were traded before they ended, and for good value. The best example should be Scott Gomez who was traded for Ryan McDonagh. These are contracts that all had at least a full season of term remaining at the time of the trade. Most of the cases where teams trade a bad contract, it is for another bad contract. It’s rare to see the bad contract for good value exchange.

1) Scott Gomez, NYR: June 2009, the Rangers somehow managed to trade Gomez  (5 years remaining at $7.4M AAV at age 29) to Montreal for a package that included Chris Higgins and Ryan McDonagh. This is one of the all-time greatest head scratchers. Either they believed Gomez presented good value over $7M AAV, or they believed McDonagh would be a bust. Either way they were way wrong.

2) Cam Barker, Chi:  Feb 2010, the Blackhawks traded him to Minnesota in the first year of a 3-year $9M contract at age 23 for Kim Johnsson and Nick Leddy and would go on to win the Stanley Cup that season. The Wild bought out the contract before it expired, and lost Leddy in the process.

3) Rob Scuderi, Pit: Dec 2015, The Penguins traded Scuderi (1 year remaining at $3.4M AAV at age 36) to Chicago for Trevor Daley and then won two Stanley Cups. Scuderi played 17 games for the Blackhawks before being demoted to the minors.

4) James Wisniewski, Cbj: March 2015, the Blue Jackets traded the defenseman (2 years remaining at $5.5M AAV at age 30) with a 3rd round pick to Anaheim for William Karlsson and 2nd rounder. Wisniewski's NHL career only last 14 more games, while Karlsson is on his way to being a star. 

5) Jason Garrison, Van: June 2014, the Canucks traded him to Tampa (4 years remaining at $4.6M AAV at age 29) for a 2nd round pick. Not the smartest move Steve Yzerman has ever made.  It did not take long for Garrison's offensive production to dry up in Tampa.

6) Keith Ballard, Fla: June 2010, the Panthers managed to unload this contract (4 years remaining at $4.2M AAV at age 27) on the Canucks for Michael Grabner and a 1st round pick. Ballard was good in Florida, but started to suck shortly after arriving in Vancouver. This contract would be bought out before it expired.

7) Tuomo Ruutu, Car: March 2014, (2 years remaining at $4.8M AAV at age 30) The Hurricanes got a 3rd round pick from New Jersey. Ruutu played 139 games for the Devils and scored 22 PTS at an average annual salary of $4.8M. That's really bad value. The Canes really should have had to pay a 3rd round pick to get Jersey to eat the remaining salary.

8) RJ Umberger, Cbj: June 2014, (2 years remaining at $4.6M AAV at age 32) RJ didn't have much left in the tank when Columbus traded him to the Flyers for Scott Hartnell, who returned good value in the first few years after the trade. Umberger scored only 26 PTS over 2 seasons in Philly, while Hartnell scored 146 over 3 seasons for the Blue Jackets. Eventually the Hartnell contract went sour, but not right away. Umberger sucked almost immediately.

9) Patrick O'Sullivan, LA:  March 2009, the Kings traded him to Carolina (2 years remaining at $2.9M AAV at age 23) with a 2nd round pick to get Justin Williams, who went on to win 2 Stanley Cups with Los Angeles. O'Sullivan only ever played 10 games for the Canes, scoring 1 point, before they flipped him to Edmonton for Erik Cole. The Oilers bought out the contract before it expired. That second O'Sullivan trade was also a contender for this list.

10) Jonathon Bernier, Tor: June 2013, the Leafs traded the last year of their maligned goalie's $4.2M contract to the Ducks for Matt Frattin, Ben Scrivens, and a 2nd round pick that became Travis Dermott. Bernier only lasted the one season in Anaheim, putting up mediocre numbers. Dermott has been a “rookie sensation” for the Leafs.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Jaromir Jagr Trade Tree

Sometimes bad trades can lead to bad trades. If we follow the ownership line from transaction to transaction, what “trade tree” would lead to the greatest number of bad deals? Going through every trade ever made in the NHL and connecting them together would require some painstaking research. I can't guarantee that this is the worst trade tree of all-time, but it's a contender and it all started with the Jaromir Jagr trade from Pittsburgh to Washington in 2001. That kicked off a series of unfortunate events that is still active today. Let’s follow the tree.

1) 2001, the Penguins traded Jaromir Jagr to Washington for a bag of pucks that included Kris Beech. None of the assets that the Penguins received in return for Jagr turned into quality NHL players. Jagr had led the NHL in scoring the year prior. I’m not sure there has ever been an Art Ross winner traded for less in the summer he won the award. 
2) 2005, the Penguins eventually traded Beech to Nashville for a draft pick.
3) 2006, Nashville trades Beech and a 1st round pick (that became Semyon Varlamov) to Washington for Brendan Witt. Awful trade. Witt scored 3 PTS in 23 GP for the Predators who were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in 5 games. He then left via free agency that summer. Varlamov is closing in on 400 NHL games. This made my list of worst deadline trades in the salary cap era.
4) 2011, Washington trades Varlamov to Colorado for a 1st round pick (that became Filip Forsberg), and a 2nd. Varlamov has been mostly mediocre since arriving in Colorado (aside from one great season), with the team only making the playoffs once in his 7 seasons. Forsberg on the other hand has become a star, scoring 229 PTS in 304 GP (and counting) in a Preds jersey. At this point in the tree, Washington has come out ahead, making three great trades, but it’s about to get worse.
5) 2012, Washington trades Cody Eakin and the 2nd round pick they got in the Varlamov trade for Mike Ribeiro. Washington was eliminated in the first round and Ribeiro bolted via free agency. Eakin has played over 400 NHL games since that trade.
6) 2013, Washington trades Forsberg to rent Martin Erat, which is among the worst deadline deals in NHL history. The Caps were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs (where they got zero PTS from Erat). This trade also made my list of worst deadline deals in the salary cap era

I’m not sure if there has been a worse NHL trade tree in the 21st century. There are at least 5 bad apples on this tree. If we diverge from the direct ownership line to see what branches from other trees are attached to this one, it starts to get a bit wild. That 2nd round pick that the Colorado Avalanche traded for Varlamov has an interesting back-story. It had originally belonged to the Boston Bruins. The Bruins traded it to Toronto with a 1st round pick (that became Rickard Rakell) and Joe Colborne for Tomas Kaberle. It’s debateable if this was a bad trade, as Boston won the Stanley Cup, but he was only their 5th defenseman who contributed very little in the finals.

But wait, there’s more. Toronto turned around and traded that 2nd round pick to Colorado for JohnMike Liles. Liles was a bust in Toronto and was sent to the Marlies before being swapped for another bad contract in Tim Gleason (whom they later bought out). Certainly the two trades that attach the Kaberle tree to the Jagr tree are bad trades. This didn’t work out so great for the Leafs, who also traded the 1st round pick they got for Kaberle to move up in the order and draft Tyler Biggs. The Leafs got Biggs, the Ducks got Rakell and John Gibson in a classic example where trading 2 lower picks for a higher pick turned out to be an epic fail.

You might remember the name Tyler Biggs, but not for a glorious NHL career. He was traded with Phil Kessel to Pittsburgh. So now the whole Kessel trade tree is connected to the Jagr tree (although not by a route of direct chronological ownership). Guess who else is in that Kessel tree? Yes, one Tyler Seguin. Who was famously traded from Boston to Dallas in an awful trade that Bruins fans still complain about to this day.

I challenge anyone to find a worse trade tree than this. I would expect any such tree to grow the most in the salary cap era. The cap forces teams to make a greater number of bad trades. The Kessel tree did not grow from the Jagr tree, their branches connect higher up the log. But even just looking at what unraveled from that one bad seed is fascinating. Lupashuk, Sivek, and Beech for the Art Ross winner is a nominee for the most terrible trades in NHL history. What came afterwards is a remarkable coincidence. 

Sunday, February 11, 2018

NHL 2017/18 Week 19 Fantasy Hockey Report

Players to watch, all formats:

1) Kyle Palmieri, NJ, (45% Yahoo ownership): If he had not missed a month with injury, his ownership would be higher.  He has scored 7 PTS in his last 6 GP and can help you in several categories.

2) Cam Fowler, Ana, (53% Yahoo ownership): It has taken him a while to get going, but with 9 PTS in his last 13 GP, he can help you in standard leagues. I added him in mine.

3) Matthew Barzal, NYI, (74% Yahoo ownership): I’ve been saying this for months, ADD BARZAL! With 19 PTS in his last 13 GP, I’m confused how he’s still available in 26% of leagues. If you’re in any sized league and he’s on the waiver wire, add him now!

4) Sam Reinhart, Buf, (31% Yahoo ownership): After a brutal start to the season, Reinhart has 14 PTS in his last 10 GP. Better late than never. Youngster with upside alert. We’ll see how well he can sustain his current pace, but you can at least ride the hot streak.

5) Carter Hutton, Stl, (68% Yahoo ownership): This guy might be for real. Over his last 9 GP he’s sporting a 7-2 record with a 1.47 GAA and .950 SV%. You can also drop Jake Allen.

Going Deep: players owned in 10% of leagues or less:

1) Brock Nelson, NYI, (5% Yahoo ownership): Brock scored 8 PTS in his first 30 GP. He scored 16 in his next 26 GP, with 7 PTS in his last 6. You see the trend here. He’s young on a team with talented offensive players.

2) Nolan Patrick, Phi, (8% Yahoo ownership): The rookie has 4 PTS in his last 6 GP. If you’re in a deep league and like rolling the dice on young players, he’s worth thinking about.

3) Greg Pateryn, Dal, (3% Yahoo ownership): Be warned that Dallas only plays 2 games next week. In his last 6 GP Pateryn has 4 PTS, 16 Shots, 22 Hits, and 23 Blocked Shots. If you’re in a deep league that counts those categories, he can help.

4) Frans Nielsen, Det, (3% Yahoo ownership): The veteran has scored 6 PTS in his last 7 GP and is an appealing target if you’re in a league with 16 or more teams. Though be warned, eventually he will go cold again. This is not a long-term investment.

5) Scott Hartnell, Nsh, (5% Yahoo ownership): He’s another guy who has not been good this season, but has been good lately. 5 PTS in his last 7 GP and he can also help you in PIMs and Hits.

The 1%: Top 3 Players to Add that are 1% Owned or Less

1) Riley Sheahan, Pit: Sheahan has scored 5 PTS in his last 5 GP where he has averaged over 16 minutes of ice time. He’s probably not going to get much ice with the big guns, but anyone putting up PTS in Pittsburgh is worth considering.

2) JT Compher, Col: His ice time has increased considerably since the MacKinnon injury and he has scored 7 PTS in his last 8 GP. So long as he’s getting this increased opportunity, he’s worth a shot in deep leagues.

3) Alex Iafallo, LA: Over his last 13 GP, Iafallo has been averaging close to 16 minutes of ice time, scoring 8 PTS with a +4 and 24 Shots. If LA’s veteran heavy line-up is starting to wear down, he could continue to benefit from greater opportunity.

Be concerned:

1) Henrik Lundqvist, NYR, (92% Yahoo ownership): Over his last 5 GP, the King has a 4.60 GAA and .874 SV%. That’s not good. The Lundqvist owner in my 18-team keeper league has been in dead last since October. You can drop him in standard leagues because there is probably a better option available.

2) Zach Werenski, Cbj, (93% Yahoo ownership): He’s played 15 games so far in 2018 and has scored 3 PTS. That’s not enough for a 93% owned player. He’s droppable in shallow leagues (right now I’d rather have Cam Fowler). The kid could also snap out of the cold streak at any time, which is probably why so many owners are still holding on.

3) Brandon Saad, Chi, (63% Yahoo ownership): I’m not quite sure what happened to this guy, but 1 point in his last 12 GP is really bad. He needs to be dropped in ¾ of the leagues he’s owned in.

Saturday, February 10, 2018

Buying NHL Face-off Wins

What does it cost to buy Face-off wins on the NHL free agent market? If you're looking for a guy to take face-offs, that most likely means you are looking for a center. The players analyzed will be those who are pending free agents, so we can see the dollar figure they commanded on the open market. Centers tend to cost more on average than wingers, given their importance to team success.

For a better look at the free agent forward market (for forwards at least 26 years old) and how many Face-offs they average per game (from 2005 to 2016), there is a histogram below (the sample contains 936 players). This shows what proportion of the FA forward market take Face-offs and how rare the high-volume guys can be.

58% of the sample will average under 2.4 Face-offs per game, with 66% averaging less than 5. So we are dealing with a small proportion of free agent forwards who are even capable of taking a significant number of Face-offs per game, and an even smaller number of those who are capable of winning over 52% of their draws. Finding a good Face-off man on the free agent market can be difficult, especially for one capable of also playing a top 2 line role.

Expected Salary by Face-off wins

What exactly can NHL teams expect to pay for FWs on the open market? We are accounting for salary cap inflation with the variable E[2017 AAV] which is what would the AAV have been with a $72M cap.

If you want to buy a center who can average over 10 FWs per game, it will cost you. This is generally because the highest volume guys are the top liners who play in all situations at both ends of the ice. The cheapest Center to average over 10 wins per game was Manny Malhotra in 2009/10 who signed a 1 year $700K contract with San Jose. Manny was coming off a $1.2M AAV salary, then followed it up with a $2.5M salary, so that one-year cheap deal was an anomaly.

Below is a scatter plot charting Face-off wins against salary for this same population of free agent Forwards. It does not show the term of the contracts, only the salary AAV. This sample is different than the ones above, in that it caps the age of the pending free agent at 32. The three yellow numbers represent groupings of players that are discussed below.

It is hard to fit any Excel trendline to this data, given how the forwards who don’t take many Face-offs affect the sample. The Top paid wingers (Group 1 above) drag the line up for the low totals. We get a negative slope into the population of low-end Centers, then it starts to climb into the high-volume Centers. Group 2 above are the skilled Centers who tend to share ice time with other centers (the win totals are not low because of bad win %), like Evgeni Malkin, Patrick Marleau, and Danny Briere.

Group 3 above are the discount Centers like Boyd Gordon, Zenon Konopka, David Steckel, Jay McClement, Kyle Brodziak, Matt Cullen, etc. One of the few places where you'll be able to find good value on FWs, is for veteran depth centers (Group 3). They average less ice time, tend to kill penalties, and take a high number of defensive zone draws. There are a few of them available every summer. Within this group, there was a 0% correlation between Face-off winning % and salary. If you're good enough to still be taking NHL Face-offs over the age of 30, then teams aren't overly concerned about the winning %.

Expected Salary By Face-off Winning %

If we look at the winning % of a large sample of pending Free Agent Forwards who took at least 100 draws and what they earned on the FA market, we see a scatter plot with almost no correlation. Ergo, all you need to do is be someone who takes Face-offs to get signed, there is not a significant wage premium for those with a higher winning %.

Thursday, February 8, 2018

10 Worst NHL Trade Deadline Flops in Salary Cap Era

What have trades at the deadline have been the biggest flops for the acquiring team since the league had a salary cap? These were not all on deadline day, as some were made the days before. The first thing that became obvious making this list was a glut of bad draft pick trades coming out of the lost season lockout. 7 of these 10 trades happened from 2006-2008. Teams would eventually learn the increased value of draft picks under a salary cap, and became much more reluctant to trade away first rounders for rentals.

1) Washington 2013 trades Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat and lost in the first round of the playoffs with Erat contributing zero playoff PTS. Forsberg has become a star player in Nashville.

2) Nashville 2006 trades a 1st round pick (Semyon Varlamov) for Brendan Witt. Witt only played 23 games for the Preds as they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs, then he bolted in free agency.

3) Buffalo 2007 trades 1st round pick for Dainius Zubrus, who did score 8 PTS in 15 playoff games, but was just a rental and left via free agency that summer. The pick they traded was a bust, but a first rounder none the less.

4) Colorado 2008 trades 1st round pick (Luca Sbisa) to Blue Jackets for Adam Foote. The Avs did win a playoff series and Foote stayed for a few more seasons, but there’s no way any team would make that trade in 2018 for a 37-year-old defenseman who doesn’t contribute much offense.

5) Minnesota 2014 trades a pair of 2nd round picks for Matt Moulson, who scored 3 PTS in the playoffs and then returned to the Sabres in free agency. Although the Sabres gave him a terrible 5-year $25M contract, and he’s now collecting those paycheques in the AHL.

6) Nashville 2012 trades a 1st round pick (Mark Jankowski) for Paul Gaustad, who did re-sign with the Preds but did not help them succeed in the playoffs. The Jankowski pick took a while to develop, but he’s been playing well in 2018 for Calgary. This wasn’t all bad for Nashville, as they did get a 4th round pick coming back that turned into current back-up goalie Juuse Saros.

7) Hurricanes 2008 trade Andrew Ladd for Tuomo Ruutu. Ladd would go on to win a Stanley Cup in 2010 with Chicago, and since the trade has scored almost 200 more PTS than Ruutu.

8) Leafs 2007 trade 2nd round pick (Roman Josi) to Phoenix for Yanic Perreault. The Leafs missed the playoffs and that pick later became an All-star player. Perreault left that summer via free agency. Phoenix was not the beneficiary of this bad trade as they would later trade that pick to Nashville for two later picks who turned out to be busts.

9) Phoenix 2006 trades 3rd round pick (Brad Marchand) to the Islanders for Oleg Kvasha. Okay, so this trade would not be on this list if the draft pick did not turn out to be Brad Marchand, but whatever. Although that didn’t benefit the Islanders, who turned around and traded that pick to Boston for a 4th and a 5th that both turned out to be busts.

10) Oilers 2006 trade 2nd round pick (Milan Lucic) for Sergei Samsonov, who did score 15 PTS in the playoffs that year as the Oilers almost won the Stanley Cup. However, the Samsonov era in Edmonton ended that summer as he bolted in free agency. If the pick didn’t turn out to be Lucic, this trade wouldn’t be on this list…but it did so it is…